Thread by @Peters_Glen

THREAD

Can the Paris Agreement be strengthened by a treaty limiting fossil fuel supply?

If you could get through the politics to make supply side policies happen, you would probably not need supply side policies (as the problem would be solved)...

1/

science.sciencemag.org/content/365/64…

"If all fossil fuel production (carbon extracted) or consumption (carbon combusted) were covered, regulating either supply or demand could suffice"

This is a key point, we talk about supply, production, consumption as we have freeriders...

2/

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

"The costs of mitigation are borne by each country, whereas the resulting environmental benefits are shared by everyone. Effective climate policies require that countries contribute considerably more than they would by individually following narrow self-interest."

3/

When you have free-riders, you could try and change accounting system to extraction (supply), production (status quo), or consumption (carbon footprint).

You can use border carbon adjustments, as a way to implement different accounting schemes.

pnas.org/content/108/45…

4/

Enter my core research area for 10+ years... I spent a lot of time writing about consumption-based accounting, the opposite end of supply-side policies!

So much to like about consumption-based policies, but...

5/

A sneak preview:
* pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.102…
* pnas.org/content/108/21…
* sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
* link.springer.com/article/10.100…
* link.springer.com/article/10.100…
* sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
and on, and on, and on, ...

6/

So much to like about consumption-based policies, but for a whole multitude of reasons, I can't see them going far (granted, there will be niche applications).

The advantage of supply-side policies are the simplicity, & very few fossil fuel extractors compared to consumers.

7/

The big (political) advantage of extraction policies, for me, is that the extractor gets the tax revenue, not the consumer.

If I was Norway, would I want to collect & keep tax revenue, or let the EU tax my product & keep the revenue.

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…

8/

If I was losing revenue in a declining fossil fuel market, would I rather compensate that loss with supply-side tax revenue, or let the consumers of my product take all the tax revenue (which could be substantial at higher carbon prices).

9/

"[R]esource exporters might prefer supply-side policies. An international coalition that limits fossil fuel supply would bear similarities to OPEC—by acting as a large producer exercising its market power to keep prices high—...."
science.sciencemag.org/content/365/64…

10/

One can make great arguments about supply-side (& consumption-based) climate policies, but the concluding paragraph is always the same...

"Many questions remain..."

And I am afraid this is where it ends...

science.sciencemag.org/content/365/64…

11/

I wanted to work at @CICERO_klima to answer the "many remaining questions" for consumption-based policies.

11 years later...

12/

I completely support my colleagues pursuing & advancing the work on supply-side policies, as I mentioned, they have many attractive elements. I just don't see an answer to the "many questions remain", & this is why I largely don't work on consumption-based policies...

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