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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Article 49 means the UK would have to conform to the Copenhagen Criteria for accession states. Yet if the EU followed its regatta principle that states best prepared for convergence can join as quickly as possible then this could be much quicker for the UK than for Balkan states
The Copenhagen Criteria as set out in 1993 that define the Article 49 accession process are:

1. Stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities
2. A functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces in the EU.

3. The ability to take on and implement effectively the obligations of membership, including the aims of political, economic and monetary union.

eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…
Whether the UK after a No Deal Brexit would have stable institutions, a functioning market economy and the ability to implement the obligations of EU membership and monetary union is of course an open question
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
We're at a point now where Brexit debate in the UK is almost completely detached from political debate in the EU.

Does Brexit even mean Brexit anymore?

Or does it now have a purely symbolic function in a zero sum battle between British elite factions?
What is the EU supposed to do with a society that is on the brink of plunging into elite polarisation that opens up a high risk of British state paralysis? How does the EU contain the fallout from internal UK divisions and prevent a disorderly break-up of the UK?
In the run up to the Article 50 extension deadline what can the EU do to provide rival UK elite factions with off ramps through which the British state can climb down from the untenable position it has placed itself in?
Read 9 tweets
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
The all-UK component of the backstop for the Irish border was a demand made by Theresa May that the EU only granted reluctantly.

Dublin would easily agree a time limit on the all-UK aspect of the backstop as long as the Northern Ireland only component stayed permanent.
If the chips were down and the UK parliament was faced between the choice of No Deal or the choice of a time limit on the all-UK aspect of the backstop I don't think the DUP could do much to save its version of the UK Union
A further EU concession to soften the blow for the DUP especially would be to combine the time limit for the all-UK aspect of the backstop with a prolonged Brexit transition where nothing changes in British everyday life through to the end of the next MFF EU budget cycle in 2027
Read 10 tweets
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
Hunt tried to set up a European mission out of fear that US hawks might use these operations as a means through which to escalate tensions and force the UK to terminate support for the Iran Deal. Such an escalation would fuel internal UK divisions further
France, Italy and other EU states are very sketchy about any US operation in the Gulf out of the same fear of getting dragged into Bolton's war. Johnson better hope the IRGC stays quiet otherwise anti-war mobilisation among many UK voters destabilises UK politics further
With EUNAVFOR the EU has a system for running convoy operations that can be extended. If Johnson and Wallace want to put the fate of UK security in the region in the hands of Bolton, Pompeo and Trump then they have to live with all the risks for UK domestic politics that opens up
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