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A thread on the GNU. We need to ask why the GNU idea has surfaced, and what it is possible for a GNU to achieve. 1/
The GNU idea is a response to the suggestion that if there is a successful VoNC against PM Johnson, he may respond by calling a GE for (say) November, and allow a no deal to happen during the campaign. 2/
Arguments have raged about whether such a step would be constitutional; on the role of the Queen in such circumstances; and on the feasibility of no deal in the midst of an election campaign. 3/
The position has been expertly set out by @ProfMarkElliott. It is possible for MPs to stop no deal, but there are formidable legal and political obstacles. publiclawforeveryone.com/2019/08/08/can… 4/
The best available route is to ensure not only that a VoNC is passed against PM Johnson, but also that those who oppose no deal are able to demonstrate that *someone else* has the confidence of the House. 5/
If so, that person would displace Johnson as PM, and could seek a pre-GE extension, ensuring that Brexit does not occur until the people have had their say in the GE. 6/
Of course, any new PM, with majority support in Parliament, could do a lot more than that. They could (eg) revoke the A50 notification, arrange a PV, agree to the WA, reform the constitution etc etc. 7/
There are thus two, very different, GNUs, which could emerge. 8/
The first is a very short term GNU, with a very limited mandate. It involves those opposed to no deal agreeing on nothing substantive; simply agreeing that there should be a GE before the next Brexit steps are taken. 9/
If there is a majority prepared to pass a VoNC against PM Johnson, there will also (surely) be a majority for this sort of 'letter writing' GNU, to enable a pre-Brexit GE to occur. 10/
The second is a longer term GNU, in which a new coalition is formed, to take Brexit decisions, and (perhaps) to govern the UK through to 2022. 11/
The (putative) majority prepared to VoNC PM Johnson, may well find it much more difficult (to put it mildly) to agree on a substantive Brexit outcome, and on a programme for Government. 12/
My worry is that the first, limited GNU idea, has, in the minds of many, morphed into a second longer term GNU idea. There is now, many seem to think, a route whereby the keys of Number 10 can be taken from PM Johnson, and an alternative Government created. 13/
What is needed is a long hard conversation among those (in many parties) who oppose no deal, to see what is possible. The Parliamentary arithmetic matters. My instinct is that only a lowest common denominator minimalist GNU is likely to be feasible. 14/
It is also, imv, good politics for those opposed to no deal not to be seen to 'exploit' the GNU (h/t @RosChappell). It is, no more no less, a mechanism to enable the people to have their say, in a GE, before the Brexit decision is taken. 15/
The GNU idea has generated a lot of confusion, and raised some people's expectations too high. The divisions between those opposed to no deal are huge. The debate about who might become PM in a GNU has been an unwelcome distraction. 16/
The key is to agree on a mandate for a GNU (and, imv, the narrower the better). 17/
The bigger battle lies ahead. A general election is likely looming. Remain parties need to develop a clear message (imv, they should pledge to revoke the Article 50 notification), and work together to deny Johnson a majority. 18/18
