Thread by @MacroTechnicals

monthly ZEW Aug2019 Analysts' surveys vs Markets recap 1/11

• Financial analysts expecting much worse global economic outlook

• this thread will show charts of Europe & Germany ZEW vs $STOXX , #SX7E Banksector, $DAX , $FGBL Bund yields, Germany 2s5s yieldcurve, $EURUSD

2/11 Europe ZEW collapsing

... and IFO, ESI , M.PMIs , S.PMIs will most likely weaker too on continues global trade war uncertainty, Italy woes again, Brexit too will hurt Eurzone

3/11 well telegraphed... ECB obviously returned to dovish camp, possible rate cuts, QE, tiering deposit rates for banks...

4/11 SX7E Banking sector under further pressure with ever lower grinding (negative) yields and collapsing yieldcurves

5/11 ...so should the overall STOXX index , so far kinda holding up quite well..

6/11 ... if this happens, implied vola will spike... VSTOXX could then easily run into 30s-40s

7/11 ... not as clear is EURUSD , inherent value of EUR should be weak, but if FED would aggressively cut , it becomes a tug of war... (yield differentials are not collapsing)

8/11 ... Germany heavyweight in Europe, feeling the most brunt as export champ, ZEW confidence totally collapsed to -44.1 .... makes DAX not look attractive, does it ?

9/11 ... Germany 10Y Bunds yields continue to "collapse" in global safe haven...one-way street since 2018... 10Y yields from +0.8% to -0.6% -240bp, 30Y from +1.43% to also neg now -0.13% -156bp since peak 2018

10/11 ... Germany 2s5s yieldcurve way ahead and same like ZEW, IFO, ESI, PMI reflecting the incoming recession...for Germany as well as Europe overall.

11/11 ... here the link from the 193 financial analysts' survey for economic, inflation, interest rates, stocks and sectors, currencies outlook

download.zew.de/08_2019_Tabell…

have a good day

12/ end @threadreaderapp unroll

*-140bp fat finger typo