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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
On Brexit and fish...
And the US and onions...
August Saturday, Test Match, football season, really not the day for high level politics, better to talk about onions.

By way of a reminder that August can be a hopeless month for political plotting. Silly season. Which could comfort those watching anti no-dealers squabbling
On the other hand unless a handful of folk from across parties take a grip soon it will be a no-deal Brexit. We shall see.

Surprised nobody has put forward @NSoames as Interim PM - #GovernmentofnationalunitystoppingnodealBrexitviaverylonghashtags
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The promised trade thread. Someone contacted me to ask why countries conclude Free Trade Agreements if the economic benefits aren't that significant. Good question, so here's 10 reasons, counting down to the most important (on my assessment), with a few examples...
10. You have particular market access issues to solve, like one of your products being prohibited or discriminated against in the other market.

Least important as these are common, and other ways to solve them exist
9. You want to bring the other country into the global trade system. Also gain first mover advantage. Was once the case with China deals, could now be the case with EU-Mercosur.

Disadvantage, first mover v assessing what others managed to agree
Read 15 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Having read through the details, I am fairly certain the document in the Sunday Times is not old or a worst case scenario. What was published is also not a comprehensive picture of no-deal, but just many of the key issues.
We presume this means to say collaboration "with" the EU. Repugnant use of language about neighbours. And I see very little that is "wrong", what is published is mostly well nuanced
What's not in the document leaked? Agriculture exports (rumours of plans for sheep culls), UK services providers unable to obtain work visas, buying and selling with EU (e.g. parcel changes), change in EU imports from single market to duty free quantities - etc, etc
Read 10 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The details published in the Sunday Times today are not the worst case scenario, note the careful phrasing of this tweet.
This is also misleading... anything but admit that the leak is and remains the base case, not the worst or best

The no deal paradox, if shit isn't going to happen then we don't need months of intense preparation, but we can't admit shit is going to happen as that might scare people from no deal
Read 3 tweets

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Cornelia
@PaladinCornelia
I've read parts of the Mueller report, but I've not read the entire document from start to finish. I'm going to do that now and will comment as I go along. I expect this will take me days to accomplish since I'll have to fit it in with my home & work responsibilities.

<THREAD>
1) If you'd like to follow along. This is the document I will be reading. It's a searchable PDF. scribd.com/document/40672…
2) The Introduction to Volume 1 establishes:

a) Russia interfered with our 2016 elections
b) Russia acted in favor of Donald Trump
c) Russia acted to disparage Hillary Clinton
d) Numerous links between Russian entities and the Trump Campaign were discovered.
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
High level EU official tells me ahead of EU leaders’ #Brexit summit next week he’s proposing offering the UK a ‘flextension’ /1
This would be a longer extension with flexibility for UK to come out of it as soon as parliament passed and ratified the #Brexit deal /2
This has emerged after @eucopresident Tusk held ‘several hours’ of meetings in preparation for next week’s summit /3
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
High level EU official tells me the PM is « wily »with her three day vote plan for mid March. Says with her timetable she’s turning up pressure on Brexiteers, Labour and the EU too /1
EU now can’t wait till 21 March summit to make offer on backstop in attempt to stop PM coming back for more. Will now have to make an ‘offer’ in time for 12 March meaningful vote /2
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU and UK used to throw around the threat of a no deal #Brexit in order to pressurise the other side during negotiations. Now - with political brinkmanship the order of the day and with parliament so splintered - Brussels sees no deal as an ever more real possibility 1
Ireland is the EU country with most to lose from "no deal" : in terms of trade and a massive hit to the Irish economy but also from the threat to the NI peace process. Today, while the PM is in NI, the Irish government is launching a two-pronged diplomatic offensive abroad: 2
The Taoiseach is in Brussels for a day of high level EU talks while his deputy is in the US, lobbying lawmakers. Ahead of Coveney's visit, a group of prominent Irish Americans wrote to Theresa May expressing concern over the potential #Brexit impact on the Good Friday Agreement 3
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#brexit 33
Germany earned €2.9 billion from Greece’s debt crisis, their supposed equal members

@EURACTIV euractiv.com/section/econom…
#Brexit 34
Multinationals avoid the total cost2UK of Freedom of Movement & Freedom of Establishment is about £40 Bn/YEAR. The effect on UK public finances is 2drain the resources available 4 OUR pensions & benefits in the future. Get ready 2work until you drop!
globalbritain.co.uk/wp-content/upl…£30bn-cost-of-EU-migration-FINAL.pdf
Read 13 tweets

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