Thread by @politicalham

25/In 2015 Canada exported $1.5B of goods to SA.
How will AB persuade other provinces their co.s should lose exports so oil producers can gain domestic market share? What about all those AB oil/gas professionals working in Middle East countries? Can we admit it’s a bit...complex?

26/”It's time for us to tell our story, a story we can all be proud of a story that positively impacts millions of lives across our beautiful country.” I beg to differ. This video is a terrible way to tell the oil/gas/pipeline industry’s story.

27/“Hostility is really not a very good political strategy,” says Calgary comms strategist Doug Lacombe. A few columns about terrible industry comms: 1) energi.media/markham-on-ene… 2) energi.media/markham-on-ene…

28/”The truth global energy needs are increasing every year.” How many times have you heard CAPP or Kenney says that the IEA forecast oil consumption to grow until at least 2040? Problem is, it’s not true. The IEA only FORECASTS 5 years out. After that, it’s scenarios.

29/Here’s my interview with Tim Gould, the IEA economist responsible for forecasting and scenario modelling. There are scenarios in which oil demand goes up and some in which they go down. Alberta can’t cherry-pick scenarios.
energi.media/markham-on-ene…

30/The IEA does think natural gas demand will continue to grow long after oil consumption begins to decline. But, as noted earlier, the Canadian gas industry is in trouble. West Coast LNG may help, but experts tell me 1-2 plants probably aren’t enough.

31/”The world needs Canadian energy that needs the most responsibly sourced and safely delivered energy in the world.” This sort of line comes from a 2017 CAPP/IPSO poll of global energy consumers. My column on the survey: energi.media/markham-on-ene…

32/”It drives our economy as much as it drives your car. We create jobs and build schools, playgrounds, and hospitals. We support communities, charities and families. We fuel the arts, technology, renewables, and virtually every other industry.” Mom and apple pie statements.

33/”We are here to stay.” According to 2017 Abacus Data survey, 55% of Canadians would like to see oil production decrease in 10 yrs, 65% in 30 yrs. Wood Mackenzie expects Peak Oil Demand in 2036 due to better fuel efficiency, EVs. Don’t get too comfortable, Alberta.

34/We will continue to employ millions, feed families, fund infrastructure, pay doctors and teachers and fill Restaurants, movie theatres and hotels. Canada needs us. The world needs us. We are Canadian Energy and we are proud.”

35/Canada absolutely does need the oil/gas/pipeline sector, but this isn’t the way to go about communicating the message to Canadians, most of whom think we are well into an energy transition, want govt policy to support clean energy. Pro tip: smile when you're selling, Alberta.