Thread by @politicalham

Here's a thread rebutting this video, "Supporting the Well-Being of Every Canadian," created by another oil/gas industry-funded group made up of industry executives called Canadians for Canada’s Future.


Watch it and weep.

1/“Over the past decade, everyone from foreign-funded protesters to homegrown activists have attempted to landlock our resources.” Everyone? Hardly. Abacus Data polling data shows 21% of Canadians oppose oil/gas/pipelines, more than 2x that # support them.

2/My debunking of Vivian Krause - bit.ly/2VCi7ls - found maybe 5-10% of $$ funding of anti-pipeline activists came from US foundations/donors. Rest came from Canadians + small amount from non-US donors. Activists are entitled to oppose pipeline projects b/c...democracy

3/Here’s an alternative POV about activism: Maybe industry + boosters should communicate and politick better. Why not engage supporters in BC, ON, PQ instead of simply demanding their support? Here's CAPP admitting to doing a crap comms/PR job: energi.media/markham-on-ene…

4/”while we've been busy reducing GHG emissions…” This is very misleading. Yes, oil sands producers have lowered the *carbon-intensity* of their heavy crude (emissions per barrel)...red line on graph. 1) energi.media/news/by-2030-u… 2) energi.media/markham-on-ene…

5/No, producers have not lowered total oil sands emissions. In fact, they’ve been rising, blue bars on graph. That’s the deal oil sands CEOs cut with ENGOs in 2015: No production cap in return for a 100 Mt emissions cap. energi.media/markham-on-ene…

6/“...and maintaining the highest environmental [standards]...” This is a frequently made claim with not much to back it up. Some evidence comes from O&G professionals who have worked in oilfields in other parts of the world. That evidence is strictly anecdotal, not authoritative

7/Another piece of evidence is a CAPP-commissioned WorleyParsons study from 2014, “An International Comparison of Leading Oil and Gas Regions.” It has limitations, mostly that it analyzed policy/regulation design, not performance or effectiveness. capp.ca/-/media/capp/c…

8/The problem is, performance is everything, right? How can Alberta claim the highest environmental standards of any O&G jurisdiction in light of 1.3 TRILLION litres of oil sands mine tailings? Tailings ponds have always been and still are a serious, unsolved performance issue.

9/A 2016 WorleyParsons review of environmental assessment processes found Canada also led in this area. A legitimate point is that Canada does have very high standards. We’re not pikers. But we’re hardly perfect, certainly not entitled to chest-thumping about it.

10/“..human rights standards for energy development in the world…” Higher than Norway? Higher than the UK? This claim is a dog whistle to Ethical Oil crowd, which need constant reminding that not one drop of crude is purchased based on sellers’ human rights records. Markets, eh?

11/”...or working hard to keep this country running and Canadians in jobs…” This is fair. O&G is Canada’s largest export sector by far. The industry still employs 186,684 as of July, according to PetroLMI.

12/”Today we say enough is enough for too long.” Seriously? Postmedia newspapers gush over the industry, as does the trade press. Industry lobby groups like CAPP spend millions/yr on advertising and comms campaigns. The Kenney govt is practically CAPP's PR dept. PUH-LEEZE.

13/”We've been taken for granted by all too many people who vigorously condemn what we do while relishing in the fruits of our labour every day of their lives.” Can we finally acknowledge the political landscape for oil/gas/pipelines has forever changed? facebook.com/energimedia/vi…

14/Hydrocarbons and their infrastructure have a loud, well-organized, and reasonably well-funded, opposition that has every legal right to “vigorously condemn” industry and its project even if the protestors are driving cars to the protest.

15/Why is opposition not going away? For first time, oil has a competitor: electricity, increasingly produced from low-carbon tech like wind/solar. Electricity is coming for oil’s customers, faster than many of us expected. Opponents smell industry’s fear. energi.media/canada/costs-o…

16/”We're tired of our natural resources being sold to American customers at bargain prices…” Oil is sold at bargain prices when pipelines are full or out of service for maintenance, repairs. It is more accurate to say that oil is SOMETIMES sold at a big discount.

17/Who’s selling at a discount? Not Alberta’s biggest producers. Suncor, Husky, and Imperial Oil are integrated companies with American refineries, take/pay pipeline contracts, ability to hedge, etc. When oil prices fall, they make higher refinery margins. Chart: Suncor Q2/19

18/Cenovus and CNRL protect roughly half of their production, making them more vulnerable to persistent lower prices. That’s why the Notley govt curtailed production by 8.75% in Dec. to prop up prices...basically propping up Cenovus, CNRL at expense of Suncor, Husky, Imperial.

19/But there other victims, too. Some jrs/midcaps have failed, more are in danger of doing so. This sector often has to sell at spot prices, can’t afford rail shipping like the big boys, and doesn’t have the deep pockets to ride out low prices.

20/Natural gas is in even worse shape. Rapidly rising shale gas production in the USA is pushing Western firms out of traditional Eastern Canadian markets. The NOVA GTL system has problems (eg bottlenecks) that are keeping gas from market. Source: ARC Financial

21/Compare the AECO to the Henry Hub price. Yikes! 9 producers sent a letter to Premier Kenney a month ago warning of widespread failures if gas doesn’t get some kind of curtailment like oil. This is a crisis waiting to happen in the next 12 months.

22/This is the tale of two oil patches. The Big 5 producers are doing very well, thank you, while the smaller producers, especially more heavily weighted to gas, are in big trouble, which means the services sector is in big trouble. And a few bankers, of course.

23/Readers will not be surprised that the video is the brainchild of the smaller players like the controller and investor relations manager for Birchcliff Energy, whose CEO is the chairperson for CAPP. Small world, eh?

24/”...it sickens us to see our strong and free nation buying oil from countries that violate every value Canadians hold dear.” Like Saudi Arabia, oft reviled target of Ethical Oil types? Canada currently imports a measly 71,000 b/d from the Saudis. (for 25/ see next thread).