Thread by @jonworth

#BrexitDiagram V16, updated with the news overnight that Labour's position against a 15 Oct election is hardening, and also adding the option that the Government might VONC itself

The impact of this is to make an election on 29 Oct or later much more likely, and an election on 15 Oct much less likely

Cumulative odds of an election this autumn: 87%
Cumulative odds of a Deal: 5%
Odds of No Deal this autumn: 3%

Of course all of this has the caveat that an election might lead to a Deal, or No Deal, but I cannot begin to predict how a General Election will go

If anything changes during the day I'll update this further

As ever all the docs, high res images here:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…