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Leaving the timing of the GE to one side, how much thought are the opposition parties giving to their Brexit policy pitch (or manifesto promise) in any GE? I argue: not enough. Thread. 1/
I think it is safe to assume that Johnson will campaign on a pledge to get Brexit done. If he wins, he will say that he can negotiate a better deal, and if he fails with that, that we will leave (as soon as legally possible) with no deal. 2/
His ability to negotiate the sort of deal he seems to want is, quite rightly, widely questioned. He has not - and cannot - explain how the UK will leave the single market and customs union; and at the same time avoid a hard border in Ireland, or the Irish Sea. 3/
The idea that no deal will 'get it done' and will mean that the UK can put Brexit behind it, is similarly thin. No deal will not be the end of Brexit, merely the start of a difficult negotiation in which the UK will not be well placed. 4/
So... it seems to be that it ought to be relatively easy to criticise Johnson's pledge. But that is only one part of what the opposition needs to do. The other is to have a stronger policy pitch to put the people. 5/
The current policy positions of the opposition parties (I'll deal only with Labour and the Lib Dems here) are not exactly clear. In the days and weeks ahead these parties need to make significant progress. 6/
Let's start with Labour. As far as I can make out, they will pledge to negotiate a new Brexit deal with the EU. They will then put that deal to the people. The negotiating objectives are unclear; eg re the single market, the free movement of people, state aid rules, etc. 7/
The party is divided on those issues. It is also divided between those who, in a second referendum, would support Labour's 'better Brexit', and those who support remain. 8/
It is perfectly plausible that Labour might spend months trying to negotiate a new deal with the EU, and then campaign against that deal in a subsequent people's vote. A year - which could more usefully be devoted to other priorities - might well be wasted. 9/
The LDs are more clearly anti-Brexit. They will put a version of Brexit (I am not at all sure which) up against remain in a people's vote, and then campaign to remain. Six months or more - which could more usefully be devoted to other priorities - might well be wasted. 10/
Johnson will try to present himself as the man who will get it done; against a disunited opposition, which will spend months delaying the Brexit decision, and deferring decisions on everything else. 11/
That sort of argument might (notwithstanding the obvious limitations mentioned above) appeal to many, who are fed up with Brexit, and who want us to move on. 12/
For those within the opposition parties who are convinced that there is no Brexit which offers the advantages of EU membership (the view of over 50% of people, according to recent polls), there is another pitch which could be made. 13/
Opposition parties could go into the GE seeking a mandate for the revocation of the A50 notice. Were they to win, they could then revoke, meaning that the UK would remain in the EU, with its rights and obligations intact. 14/
Revocation could occur within days of the GE. It would have a clear democratic mandate. And Johnson could no longer say that only the Conservative party can 'get it done'. 15/
Ultimately, the various parties will of course decide what sort of manifesto promises to make. If they ignore revoke, they will, I argue, be ignoring the option which best meets the aims of all those who still want to remain. 16/16
