Thread by @TheLastRefuge2

This is an important example of MAGAnomics. It is worth understanding in depth because, for obvious reasons, POTUS doesn't talk about it publicly.

theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/09/05/ger…

The "export dependent" German economy is contracting. Industrial orders for German products are coming in much lower than forecast. The drop was 2.7% in July alone.

3. The most significant reason for the drop in orders was decreased purchases from China.

" the decrease in foreign sales mainly driven by Britain and below average demand from China."

reuters.com/article/us-ger…

4. Specifically because China has chosen to engage in the trade war with the U.S. Beijing has chosen an approach that limits their global purchases.

The dropped industrial orders from Germany is a direct consequence.

5. China has devalued their currency in an effort to offset the U.S. tariffs.

This makes their exports cheaper, and buys them time...

6. However, devalued currency also makes their imports much more expensive.

Devaluing helps them sell.... But buying stuff costs them much more.

7. Simultaneously, they are getting less dollar-based income from the U.S. as Trump pressures companies to find alternate supply outside China.

8. So Beijing is feeling a 2x effect.

(1) Less dollars in their vault.
(2) Lower value for their own currency.

9. The only way Beijing can offset this "burn rate", and simultaneously keep subsidizing State companies and industries, is to start limiting external industrial purchases.

Hence, China drops orders for German products.

reuters.com/article/us-ger…

10. Additionally, with less manufacturing taking place the *actual* need for industrial products drops.

China doesn't need to purchase industrial machinery because their economic production is lower.

11. Countries who crawled into bed with China, under the auspices that Beijing will always purchase their goods, are now discovering that China ain't buying as much.

12. In November 2017 President Trump traveled to the ASEAN nations to talk trade. He left them with a question:

Think about what will happen when the U.S. stops purchasing goods from China, and U.S. companies are forced to look elsewhere to fulfill their supply chain?

13. It was a BIG question. It was a question that meant the international manufacturing and trade community needed to change the way they had been thinking for 20+ years.

14. The farewell message from President Trump delivered during the 2017 ASEAN conference was essentially:

"prepare and forecast your business affairs accordingly"...

15. After two years of strategic positioning, messaging, and execution of a global trade reset.... President Trump returned to the G20 in Osaka, Japan.

16. In 2019 the international community is discovering the answer to that question President Trump warned them about in November of 2017.

17. All those nations who were counting on Chinese purchases are now going bananas.

This is why the multinationals blame Donald Trump… and to make matters even worse – the U.S. economy is thriving, while they watch from the sidelines.

18. For more than 3 decades global economies have grown by removing wealth from the United States. The U.S. multinationals countered the economic arguments by claiming those global economies purchased U.S. treasuries; but that meant we trade our current wealth for future debt.

19. President Trump has reversed this dynamic. We are repatriating our national wealth through new trade policies, and will pay for any incurred foreign debt by expanding our own economy and controlling our own destiny.

20. Trump has a plan to do to the EU exactly the same thing he has done to China.

What President Trump needs is for Boris Johnson to be successful with Brexit first.

21. Keep in mind, what I am about to present is my interpretation of what POTUS has planned.

Also, PM Johnson is well aware of the distinct and unique benefits to Great Britain, if he can pull this off...

22. As soon as the U.K. exits the EU, there will be an announcement of a tradee "agreement in principle" between the U.S. and Great Britain.

23. Shortly after Brexit, President Trump will hike tariffs on the EU.

It will be an easily defensible position, because what POTUS Trump will do is match current trade tariffs on U.S. goods from the EU.

24. POTUS Trump's terms for an EU trade reset will demand complete 100% reciprocity from the EU toward U.S. goods and services.

No tariffs, no non-tariff barriers, no subsidies, no protectionism.

Open, free, fair and reciprocal trade.

25. Of course Germany and France will go bananas over such a preposterous position.

However, after Brexit, the EU will not be in a financial position to start an Atlantic trade war.... AND....

26. The Trade agreement between Johnson and Trump means the U.K to North America super trade highway is now open.

EU companies can shift *assembly* operations to the U.K and avoid the Atlantic trade issues.

This will make the U.K. economy, now a gateway, BOOM !!

27. In response, France and Germany will lean toward Iran, and likely hope to replace missing revenue by embracing Turkey as a new EU member.

Remember, those fancy EU social benefits means the EU always needs revenue. Big tax cash.

28. Poland, Hungary and Italy will not like the idea of the EU spooning with Iran and Turkey.

And the U.S. has heavy sanctions in place that will pummel anyone who chooses Iran.

Internal politics then fractures the EU.

29. Begin, with the end in mind...

30. We are here... Yesterday!

/END

Addendum. Serendipitous timing.... as if on cue: