Thread by @anasalhajji

Thread on the impact of attacks on #Abqaiq #oil complex in the E. province in Saudi Arabia:
1- It is difficult at this stage to assess the impact of the attacks. While no details, we have to be mindful of the gagging orders & Saudi laws governing reporting, videos, and pictures.

2-Will the attacks lead to lower crude oil exports? We do not know at this stage. Will they lower production? We do not know either. What do we know? Majority of Saudi oil exports goes through Abqaiq facilities.

3-What do we know? Redundancy is common in Saudi oil facilities, especially #Abqaiq. While costly, redundancy helps in case of technical problems or attacks similar to what we have seen today. The existence of backup means the impact on production and exports is limited.

4-What do we know? Before shipping on tankers, oil has to be processed to make it safe to be shipped & to maximize its value. If facilities and the backup are damaged, decline in exports should be almost immediate. Ship tracking companies can figure it out in few days.

5-#Crude_Quality_Matters Abqaiq oil field produces super light crude. Also, it processes Shaybah oil field super light crude. If shipments of super light crude declines, who will benefit? 😉

6-Abqaiq contains hydrodesulfurization units. Most Saudi crude is sour. This raises an issue, not only for Saudi Arabia, but for the whole world: in light of #IMO2020 requirements, what will happen when desulphurization units fail, catch fire, or attacked?

7-What we have seen today is one form of oil weapon, although oil is the one that has been attacked. The oil weapon has evolved. Technology has evolved, but in asymmetric manner. In addition, the literature of energy security has not kept up!