, 11 tweets, 14 min read Read on Twitter
#OpSwiftRetort air strikes - plausible scenarios:

1. PAF intended to strike Indian targets with aim to cause damage but missed due to inherent system limitation, poor execution or timely counter by IAF

2. Action was only to signal capability (stated reason)

3. Both

Analysis is complicated due to:

1. High disinformation level by Pak military establishment. Not just in present scenario but historically as well.

2. No official comment by #IndianArmy or #IndianAirForce on the efficacy of the strikes.

3. No anecdotes from history

@joe_sameer goes with scenario #1 basis high variation in targeting error. But then 2 different types of weapons and platforms were employed and both are relatively unknown as far as efficacy is concerned. Neither is PAF known for air strikes.

@joe_sameer @anshumig Argument in support of @OfficialDGISPR line is that Pakistanis would not be interested in escalation by actually hitting Indian military targets.

#swiftretort #PakistanAirForce #BalakotAirstrike
@joe_sameer @anshumig @OfficialDGISPR A second argument is articulated by Gen @Ptr6Vb - #PakistanAirForce will have to be really incompetent to miss as it is so hard miss!

#swiftretort #balakotairstrikes
@joe_sameer @anshumig @OfficialDGISPR @Ptr6Vb PAF showcased one video reel from a H-4 strike. But it seemed that the bomb guidance was unsteady and contact was lost well before reaching target

@joe_sameer @anshumig @OfficialDGISPR @Ptr6Vb There is the issue of unexploded ordinance. Now did #Pakistan intentionally drop dud weapons to prove a point?

#swiftretort #Balakot
@joe_sameer @anshumig @OfficialDGISPR @Ptr6Vb My own view is, that #swiftretort was a failed airstrike as evidenced by (a) poor accuracy and (b) un-exploded weapons. Poor quality weapons used only added to their problems. PAF calculated that Indian military targets were fair game and if successful India will not escalate
@joe_sameer @anshumig @OfficialDGISPR @Ptr6Vb PAF would have been under immense pressure from #PakArmy (who is everybody's boss in Pakistan) and public opinion as such. Action was precipitated by @OfficialDGISPR going public with #Balakot action right in the early morning and media frenzy that followed.
@joe_sameer @anshumig @OfficialDGISPR @Ptr6Vb Thus, #PAF took calculated escalation gamble of attempting to strike Indian military targets - its something they have done before - @somnath1978 ... they could not have waited to plan an alternate action.

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