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Jon Worth
@jonworth
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
At the end of a remarkable week, here is #BrexitDiagram V19

This one adds what *might* happen in the Supreme Court 17 September, and the consequences of that for different #Brexit outcomes
Note: I am not a lawyer, so I have hedged my bets - putting the two outcomes from the Court of Session and the High Court at .4 probability to then be confirmed by the Supreme Court, and .1 for prorogation ruled illegal and .1 for it ruled legal
Also as talk of a General Election has died down from Johnson, and opposition parties ponder what to do during prorogation, there are some changes to the probabilities of the various outcomes
⬆️ Brexit with a Deal - either with a NI-only Backstop, an agri-food Backstop, or May's original Deal - combined 11%

⬆️ #PeoplesVote - now 16%

⬇️ General Election - now 64%, but still by far the most likely

↔️ No Deal by 31 Oct 6%, and Extension w/o justification 3%
Feedback very welcome - especially if you think the odds on a node are wrong, or if arrows are missing

And as ever all the files - .png, .pdf, .ods and draw(dot)io xml are on my blog: jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…
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More from @jonworth see all

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
After having managed to equally enrage Remain *and* Leave people with my earlier comments about the Lib Dems' Revoke policy, let me try to set the record straight
I *do not* personally support the revocation of #Article50

Conversely, I think it makes sense tactically for the Lib Dems to advocate it at a General Election

It solidifies their Remain credentials, and also opens the door to a #PeoplesVote as a compromise position
Plus I also do not really have much time for the these "Revoke and reform" or "Revoke to reconsider" arguments. Ask those people calling for reform of the EU what reform they want and you get as many answers as there are questioners.
Read 8 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So why all this fuss that Johnson might actually try to get a #Brexit Deal through?
First and foremost it’s an acknowledgement that the Commons won.

The Benn Bill keeps No Deal at bay for 3 months. And even Johnson must realise that defying the Commons and refusing to extend at the European Council is a bad look.
Second, the Benn Bill *together with* opposition parties refusing Johnson his 2/3 majority makes an early election a less pleasant prospect for the Tories.

They’d have to go into an election having broken the leave-by-31-Oct pledge.
Read 13 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
So today @oletwinofficial joins @tom_watson & Tony Blair suggesting a #PeoplesVote should happen first, and only then a General Election

But what are the pros and cons of this?
Referendum first has the *appeal* that it keeps the Tory and Labour parties together, and that there can be some Brexit 'closure' as soon as possible
But referendum first has major *downsides* - that it would need a caretaker administration for 6 months to organise, would need a longer Article 50 extension to organise, and the problems of the 2016 referendum haven't been resolved
Read 6 tweets

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Anna Ellis
@annaellis_net
Gotta love the times we live in. THREAD:

The case brought by Jo Maugham, Joanna Cherry et al has produced a surprise result at Scotland's Inner House court. Judges have deemed the PM's advice was unlawful. This is being celebrated by Remainers. 1/
Firstly, the summary being circulated *is not the actual judgement*. That gets issued on Friday 13 September (unlucky for who, we can only hazard a guess). What we have here is a press release, issued, no doubt, by Jo Maugham & his merry Parliamentarians. 2/
Next, this is obviously being appealed. The Supreme Court scheduled emergency hearing on Gina Miller's case, the NI case & this one together on 17 September. As the arguments of the plaintiffs are essentially the same, this is a sensible use of overstretched court resources. 3/
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Anna Ellis
@annaellis_net
My timeline's going to be busy today. For our viewing delectation, we have: Parliament eating itself to prove pundit spin about Boris & coups; the latest Gina Miller "Only I know what's Best for Britain" love-in, & the appeal to Scotland's Inner House about Boris's prorogue.
Up in Scotland, they've kicked off early & counsel for the plaintiffs (Jo Maugham, Joanna Cherry + 70ish others) is waxing lyrical about the Government providing them with redacted documents. GDPR/National Security clearly not an issue for them, then.
Meanwhile, back in London, Shami Chakrabati (she of the dodgy Labour anti-semitism report which bought her a peerage) has arrived. She's an intervenor, somebody deemed to have an interest in the case with a perspective that impacts the arguments. Written submission only, though.
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Juha Keskinen
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"Libertarian gets in hospital with brain concussion following interrogation at Federal Security Service."
Even Russian Federal Security Service doesn't like Libertarians...
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"Rogozin sets up his own treasury. The contracts of Roscosmos will be supervised by Roscosmosbank"
Yeah, that'll fix the problem...
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Stephen Schwarzman's (Blackstone) N113CS 4/12/19 Waterbury-Teterboro-Palm Beach
He's been flying a lot to PB in the past few months
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Learn German, Interestingly
@LGcommaI
#brexit, #language, #mathematics, #pseudoscience, #rhetoric, #style

Brand-new and remarkable: #today, in a speech before #industry-representatives, chancellor Angela #Merkel used an old-fashioned, and,I think, INAPPROPRIATE,mathematical term to describe the #Brexit discussions..
.. in the #UK.

On 20180925, 9:50 CET, (cf. bdi.eu/der-bdi/termin…), chancellor Merkel said the following: "Wesentlich hängt es natürlich auch davon ab, was Großbritannien denn wirklich möchte. Auch da ist ja die Diskussion nicht so ganz eineindeutig [sic],
und, das muss ich..
.. allerdings sagen: Man kann nicht zum Binnenmarkt gehören, wenn man in EINEM Teil nur zum Binnenmarkt gehören will, aber in drei ANDEREN Teilen nicht zum Binnenmarkt gehört, und da müssen wir verschiedene, äh, vernünftige Wege [ rest drowned out by applause ]."
..
Read 17 tweets
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Matt Ford
@fordm
It's day two of the Kavanaugh hearings. I'll be livetweeting in this thread, so please feel free to mute it if necessary.
Today is the Q&A portion. What will senators ask the prospective justice? Some questions from me: newrepublic.com/article/150678…

And from law professors: newrepublic.com/article/151024…
Grassley says each senator will get 30 minutes of time for questions in the first round. There are 21 senators on the committee. It's going to be a long day.
Read 106 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Some thoughts on #EUCO and #Brexit

1/
Zero chance of moving to Phase II, so will be all about optics. Everyone needs to take something home

2/
COM needs to show it's in control: EU27 want to know their dosh/citizens are safe: May needs to not look supine

3/
Read 9 tweets

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