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At the end of a remarkable week, here is #BrexitDiagram V19

This one adds what *might* happen in the Supreme Court 17 September, and the consequences of that for different #Brexit outcomes
Note: I am not a lawyer, so I have hedged my bets - putting the two outcomes from the Court of Session and the High Court at .4 probability to then be confirmed by the Supreme Court, and .1 for prorogation ruled illegal and .1 for it ruled legal
Also as talk of a General Election has died down from Johnson, and opposition parties ponder what to do during prorogation, there are some changes to the probabilities of the various outcomes
⬆️ Brexit with a Deal - either with a NI-only Backstop, an agri-food Backstop, or May's original Deal - combined 11%

⬆️ #PeoplesVote - now 16%

⬇️ General Election - now 64%, but still by far the most likely

↔️ No Deal by 31 Oct 6%, and Extension w/o justification 3%
Feedback very welcome - especially if you think the odds on a node are wrong, or if arrows are missing

And as ever all the files - .png, .pdf, .ods and draw(dot)io xml are on my blog:…
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