1/ Given the deeply polarized political environment in the US, President Trump's record low popularity, his anarchistic governing style, numerous conflicts of interest, and penchant for making enemies, we are not surprised to see so many people baying for Trump’s impeachment.
2/ We have no way to assess if Trump was involved in any wrongdoing but many lawsuits have been filed to remove him from office. As @DLeonhardt wrote, “This is our time of testing. The rule of law depends on a society’s willingness to stand up for it when it’s under threat.”
3/ Impeachment is a political, not a legal process. It is up to America’s elected representatives. A simple majority in the House must first approve the articles of impeachment, and then the Senate must hold a trial on whether to remove the president from office.
4/ If a two-thirds majority convicts the president, his vice president replaces him. No new elections are triggered. But this has never happened in US history. A sitting president has never been removed from office via impeachment.
5/ Andrew Johnson (1868), Richard Nixon (1974), and Bill Clinton (1998) faced impeachment. But Nixon resigned before he could be impeached, and Clinton and Johnson were impeached, but acquitted and remained in office. The Senate failed to get the 67 votes required for conviction.
6/ Trump’s impeachment seems practically impossible. Even if Democrats authorize an impeachment process, they need at least 20 Republicans in the Senate to vote alongside all of the Democrats to dismiss Trump. This is wildly implausible given partisan politics.
7/ Moreover, consider that both Johnson and Clinton faced Congresses controlled by their political enemies (and still got acquitted). The GOP has not completely lost faith in the president so they will not support impeachment. Trump's approval rating among Republicans is 79%.
8/ Another possible method to get President Trump fired is the invocation of Article 25 of the Constitution (Section 4), which would require the cabinet to inform Congress that the president is unable to perform his duties. The vice president would then become acting president.
9/ However, there is no precedent for this mechanism being deployed, and the legislative hurdle for this procedure is even higher than the impeachment process. A two-thirds majority in both chambers of Congress would be required to prevent the president from regaining power.
10/ Consequently, don’t get distracted by the ongoing political theater. Talk of impeachment seems far-fetched. As we wrote in 2017, "With public trust in government near historic lows, Trump stands a good chance of getting away with more controversy than any past president."
11/ Or as @realDonaldTrump told Billy Bush on the infamous Access Hollywood tape, “When you’re a star... You can do anything!”
