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Thread: Reading the memorandum of the conversation between Trump and Zelenskyy, I have thoughts 1/14
Zelenskyy was well-briefed for this discussion, and his marching orders were to get on Trump’s good side. 2/14
If Ukraine loses the United States as a strong backer, its negotiating position with Russia is much weaker, no matter what the Europeans do. This isn’t just about a particular aid package 3/14
I would still count on European sanctions unity absent actual progress on Minsk, but Ukraine doesn’t want to be making all the concessions. Without US backing Kyiv all the way, the pressure from Europe is about solving this one way or another, and that pressure falls on Kyiv 4/14
In line with this, Zelenskyy’s critiques of Merkel and Macron are standing Ukrainian talking points, if a bit more bluntly put than usual--Kyiv wants less pressure from Europe on themselves, and more on Russia 5/14
Zelenskyy was careful not to promise anything regarding a Biden investigation, and he asked for more information. 6/14
There was no need for a US president to threaten to withhold aid and support. In a circumstance like this, with Ukraine so dependent, any request carries that threat, and since we know that machinations with the aid package were ongoing, it looks bad.7/14
The comments about former US Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Jovanovich could (maybe should) come back to bite Kyiv. No reason to think the Ambassador anything but a consummate pro. 8/14
Moreover, Kyiv doesn’t just need the US, Kyiv needs the bipartisan American support it’s had since the war began in 2014 9/14
The comments about Jovanovich (who is not partisan, but who may have been forced out for partisan reasons), and any hint that Kyiv would investigate Biden as a political favor to the US administration stand to hurt Kyiv 10/14
with their long-standing democratic friends--in Congress among other places. The executive branch does not decide Ukraine policy on its own. Kyiv can’t afford to lose friends in Congress 11/14
Kyiv also can’t afford to alienate the Democrats, because they just might get that White House back, mightn’t they? 12/14
Democrats may forgive Kyiv, because most of them see Ukraine as in the right against Russia and they understand the pressure it’s under. But that’s a dangerous assumption to make, and willingness to do pol quid pro quos does not fit the reform narrative, to say least 13/14
“My attorney general” is also a bad look when you’re fighting corruption. 14/14 end thread
Addendum: If you want to better understand just what a memorandum of a this sort is and is not, read this by @JimGoldgeier
@JimGoldgeier this, that is washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/…
