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Tom McTague
@TomMcTague
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
What is the main political problem with the backstop? Imbalance. Ireland gets what it wants, but UK & NI unionism does not.
UK offer *an attempt* to balance concessions:
⚡️DUP to accept goods alignment
⚡️🇮🇪 to accept customs divergence & consent
⚡️🇬🇧 to accept regs border
1/4
This is not to say the offer will—or should—be accepted, but to explain its intensely *political* nature, which attempts to get close (but not all the way) to the edge of what is politically possible in the UK. There's more wiggle room, but not much...
2/4
The bottom line: everything is up for discussion if the Irish/EU concede that there will be—at some point in the future, guaranteed—two customs zones in law on the island of Ireland. This is Boris Johnson's backstop to the backstop—the only red line for the UK
3/4
🇮🇪 has a strategic call to make:
1. Engage, accepting principle of customs divergence
2. Withdraw in hope of delay and UK election creating a new dynamic which squashes idea of two customs zones on island of Ireland, either through revoke, second referendum on soft Brexit
4/4
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More from @TomMcTague see all

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Tom McTague
@TomMcTague
Arlene Foster’s intervention raises an old question: to whom are Ulster’s loyalists loyal?

In ‘75 Enoch Powell said a loyalist could not, logically, place “conditions upon his obedience to the Crown in Parliament”

Ian Paisley & the DUP said no—their loyalty *is* conditional 1/8
Ian Paisley’s argument could be Arlene Foster’s today: “If the Crown in Parliament decreed to put Ulster into a United Ireland, according to Mr Powell’s theory we would have to obey if we were loyal. This is utter nonsense.” Sound familiar? 2/8
Should Ulster accept backstop for the good of the rest of UK? That is what they believe is being asked of them, right or wrong

DUP says no, it’s loyalty isn’t to parliament (it’s not even wholly to monarchy—that is conditional on it remaining Protestant—let alone the Tories) 3/8
Read 8 tweets
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Tom McTague
@TomMcTague
Let me add a touch of scepticism to this morning's Coveney love-in. He is incisive, clear and forceful—all things which have been missing in the UK since 2016. But what did he say that, in any way, helped solve *the* hurdle in the talks: unionist political consent? 1/6
Look at Coveney's (v clearly articulated) point:
—Regulatory alignment is the *only* solution
—Nothing else works (it's been tested)
What is the conclusion?
—Unionist concerns that the backstop is the permanent settlement for N Ireland are valid 2/6
What is unionism's concern? They argue the backstop is *not* a defence of status quo but a *change* over which NI has not given consent, has no control—and has no way to leave
—Given🇮🇪has ruled out time-limit or exit mechanism, how has Coveney sought to answer these concerns? 3/6
Read 6 tweets
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Tom McTague
@TomMcTague
“The people of Northern Ireland must be able to withdraw consent, with all that entails.” It’s hinging on consent— the great overlooked issue, not just by Brussels and Dublin, but London as well. Some officials in Dublin privately accept this
What happens when there’s not a *political* settlement in Northern Ireland acceptable to all? It stops working theatlantic.com/international/…
In 1976, a UK official wrote a note: “Power sharing cannot be imposed. The history of Northern Ireland has shown that any party representing a sizeable group within the community has the power to bring ordered government to an end.”
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
PM Johnson has made the removal of the #backstop the make-or-break matter when it comes to an exit deal with the EU.

So this thing is pretty damn important.

Time for a quick recap of what the 'loathed and detested' backstop actually is?

1/14
The #backstop is there specifically to meet the UK’s commitments to avoid a hard Irish border & protect the 1998 Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement & peace process.

This isn’t just of benefit or interest to the island of Ireland.
A broken Northern Ireland means a limping UK.
2/14
How does the #backstop work?
A v.brief explanation:

Having to apply & enforce customs procedures & rules around market access makes a border ‘hard’.
(just talking trade here)

Put simply, the greater the hassle in getting goods across a border, the harder that border is.

3/14
Read 14 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
To summarise results from the @IrishTimes/MRBI poll:

Opinions in NI on #Brexit:
- overwhelmingly reject a hard Brexit; 67% want UK to stay in CU & SM
- wd vote to remain in a 2nd ref
- wd prefer checks on goods btn GB&NI than checks on @BorderIrish.

1/4
 irishtimes.com/news/politics/…
Opinions in IRL on #Brexit:
- 54% satisfied with Irish govt handling of Brexit
- but almost equal split on whether should compromise on #backstop
[cf. @skynews poll]
- also split btn those saying checks on goods going to EU wd be preferable to those going across the border.

2/4
On a #BorderPoll:
- rising support for border poll (36% inc 55% of Catholics)
- see graphs below [can't assume preference re: Irish unity on basis of religious denomination]
- in the Republic: 49% say there should be a referendum on Irish unity, & 62% would vote in favour.
3/4
Read 4 tweets
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Joseph Stalin
@StalinIsBack
1/8 My favorite #quote by #JosephStalin, which explains the scientific, #DialecticalMaterialist explanation of true freedom in material reality, not just as an abstract ideal. #StalinIsBack #StalinLives #JVStalin #Stalin #StalinQuote #StalinQuotes #Truth #MELS #MarxismLeninism
2/8 Having an #objective, #rational, #ScientificSocialist, #Dialectical, & #Materialist viewpoint allows us to accurately see & evaluate & analyze #Truth & #Reality as they truly materially exist in this universe.
3/8 An idealistic, dogmatic viewpoint, which capitalists have, however, makes one irrational enough to 'see' freedom where freedom stays trapped on a piece of paper while people are oppressed in their actual lived lives.
Read 520 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Tonight at 2200 on @skynews i’ve been in the port of Larne, Northern Ireland with Daisy the cow, who could save the Brexit Deal or imperil the Union, depending on your view...#backstop #borderforcows
in the Northern Ireland port town of Larne, one of the places where Irish Sea checks would be required under EU Ireland Brexit backstop proposal, currently being negotiated in Brussels..
and one of the places where checks actually already happen on animal trade between Sco & NI
Barnier mentioned these existing “Irish Sea” checks as a precedent yesterday - but would have to be tenfold increase for backstop...DUP source said this was building “an entire edifice” on some foot & mouth checks for cows..MEP Diane Dodds said checks on lasagne as well as cows
Read 6 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Here's a thread on the #Brexit #Backstop, the #Border and NI/IRL,
in which I try to succinctly explain why I think the UK govt has got itself in an unnecessary pickle on this one,
& how it might get out of it.

1/11
The Protocol is intended as ‘insurance’ in case a future UK-EU agreement is insufficient to meet the commitments made in the Joint Report bit.ly/2Bgjvj6. In that sense it is *already* conditional & envisaged as temporary.
It is a backstop, not a precursor.

2/11
The Protocol is the EU showing most flexibility (cherrypicking) *for* Northern Ireland in the very areas that the UK is finding hard to swallow, i.e. NI being in a Common Regulatory Area and the Customs Territory of the EU.

3/11
Read 11 tweets
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Charles Lister
@Charles_Lister
UK’s @AmbassadorAllen:

#Novichok is not a weapon that can be manufactured by non-state actors… #Russia has provided no credible explanation… Therefore, we have no alternative but to conclude that the #Russian state was responsible [for a chemical weapons attack on my country].
This was an attack on #UK soil… #Russia is failing to comply with the conditions of the Chemical Weapons Convention…

Let us turn to the part of the CWC that #Russia is not talking about - Russia did not declare #Novichok & is therefore in serious breach of the CWC.
This was a reckless act… #Russia officials have repeatedly threatened those they consider traitors, before & after March 4 attack.

Russia has a history of political assassinations, interfering in other countries & a total disregard for civilian life.
Read 16 tweets

Trending hashtags

#ScientificMethod #Russophobia #Foreign #good #Conservativehustings #ICC #Yemen #children #BhagavadGita #MohammedBinSalman #biography #exhaustion #scrap #Brexit #Italian #Democratic #Albanian #pt #SocialismWorks #Ireland #English #India #CapitalismIsTyranny #schedules #language
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