My view of the why much of the Middle East *had* to be flattened (2003–2014).
A #WarOnCheapOil to create/support international demand for USD
This is speculative. The aim is to understand the violence that killed millions. You decide if it is useful/relevant.
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A #WarOnCheapOil to create/support international demand for USD
This is speculative. The aim is to understand the violence that killed millions. You decide if it is useful/relevant.
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Since 2003, US military action across ME looked increasingly incomprehensible & disorganized. $6 trillion spent fighting for abstract concepts & unclear aims. You remember WMDs, nation building, revenge for 9/11, getting rid of the evil dictator. & other evil dictators etc.
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Doesn't make sense.
Now, the most common explanation we hear is that ‘mistakes were made’. More plausibly, Luke Gromen defines the #StateDeptOilMarket – military action to control the flow and pricing of oil.
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Now, the most common explanation we hear is that ‘mistakes were made’. More plausibly, Luke Gromen defines the #StateDeptOilMarket – military action to control the flow and pricing of oil.
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Previous US admins maintained a ‘strong dollar policy’. Cheap oil undermines that policy. A strong dollar requires higher oil prices to:
• maintain international demand for US dollars, and;
• to keep US shale competitive against lower cost producers.
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• maintain international demand for US dollars, and;
• to keep US shale competitive against lower cost producers.
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Geopolitical risk premiums are oil-price rises due to unplanned outages. Terrorism, sabotage, and war often halt production. These events increased exponentially after 1999 and correlate with a very dodgy War on Terror.
oilprice.com/Geopolitics/In…
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oilprice.com/Geopolitics/In…
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Comic interlude:
Something kinda unreal about ISIS, no?
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Something kinda unreal about ISIS, no?
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Pre-TRump US admins had reasons to stop Iraqi oil getting to market. Victor the Cleaner points out that whenever Iraq’s oil production reached certain levels, war or sanctions swiftly took them offline.
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9/11 and WMDs were pretexts for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Whatever the true aims of the war, Iraq’s oil infrastructure was destroyed. This ensured their oil stayed in the ground.
Oil, then, would be more expensive.
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Oil, then, would be more expensive.
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Many nations with large oil reserves also had problems. US-sponsored sanctions disrupted supplies of RUS, VENEZ and IRAN oil. After Iraq was flattened. LIB, SYR, NIGR, and others got beset by lunatics (some religious). These 'madmen' destroyed local oil infrastructure.
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Team Trump wants to end strong USD, bring the jobs home (and logically to ditch USD reserve status), why destroy your manufacturing - #Triffin – just to provide the world with IOUs? #ExorbitantBurden
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Team Trump seems to want to end strong USD policy, & bring the jobs home/troops home and dollars home – logically that means ditching USD reserve status), why destroy your manufacturing - #Triffin – just to provide the world with IOUs? #ExorbitantBurden
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Maybe the launch of the Euro threatened serious problems for USG
a - Europe stops funding US deficits by stocking US paper
b - threat of reduction in international USD demand via oil with a possible competing ccy
Would that be worth taking all but KSA/USA oil offline for?
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a - Europe stops funding US deficits by stocking US paper
b - threat of reduction in international USD demand via oil with a possible competing ccy
Would that be worth taking all but KSA/USA oil offline for?
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Most people prefer alternate stories, that's the one that makes most sense to me.
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