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, 3 tweets, 1 min read
+BREAKING+

UK govt has had discussions with “at least 24 Labour MPs” it believes could help get their Brexit deal thru Parliament.
ERG are expected to fall into line as they now believe if the deal fails a 2nd referendum only option left.

Endgame now.
It’s in Labour’s hands.
2/
To get Brexit vote thru a maximum of 321 votes needed:
288Tories
10 DUP
24 Labour
Plus Indeterminate number of ex Conservative MPs who can be persuaded to vote for a deal in return for keeping their seat.

The Govt believe they can do this but Labour MPs crucial.
3/
If you’re not following @jonworth on this you really should be..

My take: Govt confident they’ll get 287 Tory votes (ie incl ERG) + DUP + 5 hardcore Brexit Labour MPs

This then means up to extra 17 votes needed from ex Tories or Labour.

Govt believes it’s doable.
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More from @nicktolhurst see all

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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
+BREAKING+

Govt has been advised that a general election before February now very unlikely due to logistical problems.

Only chance is if one is called immediately for mid November otherwise will have to be delayed 3 months.
Understand civil service concerns:
1 holiday season
2 unavailability of facilities / polling stations at that time l
3 run up time
4 weather
5 unavailable staff
People seem a bit surprised at this. But not only can you not have polling day in winter holiday season / you can’t have an election campaign during it either.

Election has to be called more or less now or delayed till February.
Read 3 tweets
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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
+BREAKING+

EU sets UK government a deadline of midnight (CET) tonight to set a “fully explained” workable plan for presentation at EU summit tomorrow.

Endgame zone approaching...
2/
Current UK proposals “fall short” acc to Michael Barnier.

UK government now has 11 hours to come up with something.
3/
The poker game is now on Johnson.

Coming up with something that satisfies EU by midnight means a serious concession. But not doing so means extension guaranteed unless UK govt breaks the law.

The last 6 months have now come down to this - 11 hours to decide Britain’s fate.
Read 16 tweets
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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
+BREAKING+

EU leaders have reached internal agreement to potentially offer Britain a 9-12 month Brexit extension.
2/
There would be “a review date pencilled in for June” - presumably as this would coincide with potential referendum result.. (guess on my part here)
3/
This is good & bad news for remainers.

My take (& is only my take) is that EU want it sorted either way. Deal now or a mechanism to remain/Leave *properly* next summer.

Extension for 3 months over Christmas only ever made sense as a “technical” extension not a genuine one.
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Georgina Wright
@GeorginaEWright
Baffling that many in Britain *still* think Merkel will be the one to help get a #Brexit deal over the line. Yes, Merkel wants a deal as do EU27. But there are limits to what EU leaders can do (short thread):
1. EU leaders have final say, but @EU_Commission negotiates: EU Commission discusses positions with EU27 before & after *each* negotiating round (and is in regular contact with @Europarl_EN & others). EU Commission is not 1 actor among 28, it negotiates on behalf of 27.
2. Feasibility of deal: so if @EU_Commission say "no", it's usually cos EU27 have said no. Yes, there are times when EU leaders are more involved (and they will definitely be more involved in trade & sec talks). But to assume they will have radically different position is.. silly
Read 8 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU politicians welcome the serious tone used by PM in Dublin today when spoke of importance of making deal with EU, avoiding no deal #Brexit BUT EU contacts tell me they await a change in actions not just rhetoric /1
The PMs main #Brexit envoy, David Frost, expected back in Brussels on Weds. So far EU says he’s been discussing reducing backstop commitments rather than proposing st that could realistically replace the backstop /2
Government floated idea of all-Ireland agricultural area but EU don’t consider this a serious proposal bc only covers 30% of cross-border trade. EU will see on Weds if PM’s negotiator brings additional ideas. If not EU diplomats say it’ll be clear PM not seriously negotiating /3
Read 6 tweets
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⚢🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸🏳️‍⚧️
@SakuraNoSeirei
Good morning and welcome to yet another #Brexit thread

Have just woken up this morning to see that the Government in the Lords backed down at 01:30 and agreed to give the #BennBill time to go through all stages in the Lords

So I'm going to grab a coffee and try to find...

1/n
the business for today for both Houses

2/n
And indeed, today's the day that the Lords starts on the #BennBill

No firm commitment on timing just yet but I will hopefully be here to cover it live

3/n
lordsbusiness.parliament.uk
Read 125 tweets
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dog
@IntelDoge
UK flagged oil/chemical tanker STENA IMPERO doing something interesting at the moment. It's port is the opposite way of where it's heading, and it's heading directly for the #Iran|ian island of Qeshm.. 🤔
The track of this ship is incredibly concerning, if it continues on it's track towards Iran, which it's only 9.5 nautical miles from..
Here's an image by Relic in Crustacean Nation - this track is the rather concerning part.
Read 41 tweets
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⚢⚧🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸
@SakuraNoSeirei
#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.

1/n
You can hear #TheresaMay's reaction from here

2/n
So the splitting of the #ToryParty continues. Where will it end? And can we expect resignations from #Labour if #Corbyn is seen as giving up too much to #TheresaMay during the discussions tonight.

3/n
Read 92 tweets
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Sydney Nash
@NashSGC
Don’t know which Europeans Mr. Hannan is speaking to but I haven’t met anyone in Brussels or in EU capitals who is unhappy with the Commission approach & I’ve spoken to a lot of them. #Brexit
In addition, no-one in the #EU is threatening the UK (I wld challenge Hannan to point to one threat that has come from a leading EU politician or negotiator), nor are they stopping the UK from leaving. #Brexit
The EU have been clear from the start that there are many trade models available to the UK & the UK have ruled most of them out. If it feels like the UK has little room for manoeuvre it is because the government painted itself into a corner. #Brexit
Read 17 tweets

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