Thread by @pmdfoster

So some quick thoughts on tonight's docments after chats....

First the UK's unilatearl statement which is here - it's not quite the 'uk talking to itself' as it might first appear. /1

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Understand that the reason for the delays tonight was that @campaignforleo was digging in hard against the Unilateral UK declaration - which suggest Dublin fears it more than the dismissals suggest. /2

@campaignforleo Why? Becaause even though it is unilateral, if the EU does not object when the UK lodges the declaration (at UN or as part of ratification) then by not killing it (and EU have agreed they wont) it obtains legal force. That is how UK will argue it anyway. /3

@campaignforleo As one UK source says, the Unilateral declaration 'tops up' the Withdrawal Agreement and notes things the EU will turn a blind eye to.

In terms of substance....it is clearly not a unilateral exit mechanism or time limit BUT... /4

@campaignforleo ...it does open door to arguing that backstop cannot legally be a trap, since EU have implicitly agreed to UK right to trigger the exit process over time.

So if you were looking for reassurances, rathern than hard guarantees...this might help. /5

@campaignforleo The second reason the Unilateral Uk statement caused delays/troubles is that the Commission went a *bit* further than expected in the 18-point Joint Instrument whic his here. Paras 6, 10, 12 & 14 are keys. /6

ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…

@campaignforleo This is a 'win' for Brits in sense that the aspirational Dec 31 2020 for new arrangements has slipped back into legally binding Withdrawal Agreement text(s) from the Political Declaration. This is an advance from the flat rejection of Malthouse couple weeks back. /7

@campaignforleo Does it mean much? Will it make Unicorns exist? No, it won't, but if your beef was that EU wasn't serious, it's about as strong a statement you could hope for saying "we'll do our best". /8

@campaignforleo Clearly that stores up trouble and a ton of unanswered questions for the future, but in terms of getting divorce papers signed, it might help some MPs back Mrs May. /9

@campaignforleo More bolstering here in Para 10. Promises separate track ito obviate backstop if rest of negs stall; and repeats that final deal doesn't have to = all-UK customs union Brexiteers fear. /10

@campaignforleo So Para 12 also says that the EU cannot just sit on hits hands (apply protocol indefinitely) and if it did, then the resort is to th arbitration mechanism, not the ECJ. This could also comfort Brexiteers/ERG. /11

@campaignforleo Lastly Para 14 which is not an exit mechanims, but notes that the arbitration panel could make binding demands on the EU to if it was not living up to commitment not to impose backstop indefinitely. /12

@campaignforleo Some on UK side will enjoy the "unless and until" formula being potentially applied back on the EU here - since that "unilateral, proportionate suspension" will remain in place until remedies are made. /13

@campaignforleo In summary?

There is more here than simply what's in the Tusk-Juncker letter of Jan 14.

Is it enough? Not for the hardliners; but if your concern was that EU feet wouldn't be held to the fire in phase 2, there is stuff here to latch onto.

But..../14

The issue remains - the same problem that May came up against in December at the EU Council.

The UK can't agree what it wants. Skinnying the deal over the line now doesn't change that, it merely stores the row up for the (not so distant) future. Another can-kick.

Night. ENDS