, 6 tweets, 3 min read
1) #SuperTinfoil THREAD
IMO, the big news here is the change in the amount of the deposit necessary to order a #Tesla (Which comes with #TeslaQualityIssues btw😉)
How does the change from a $2,500 "Refundable" deposit to a $100 nonrefundable one benefit $TSLA? Hear me out...
2) First, does anyone think a $TSLAQ fanboi or someone who has decided to "Go green" by buying a 40-100k car was ever deterred to buy one because of a 2.5k deposit that was gonna go towards the purchase price in "2 weeks"? I absolutely don't think so.
3) Let's assume Tesla has a 15k order backlog in the US. A $2,400 difference in the deposit moving forward is a 36 million dollar hit to the cash flow. Per #TeslaRefundIssues, we know Tesla usually waits about 2 months to refund it, which makes that deposit even more valuable.
4) Remember the "420,000" Model 3 reservations pump by the 1st week after the M3 was revealed?
If Musk is about to raise capital again for much needed cash, he will need to boast about an "Order backlog" again, which given the omission of "In transit" is looking worse.
5) Now, in order to fake order numbers prior to a capital raise, placing orders for 50,000 cars at 2.5k each would require 125M, not quite affordable for an "Illiquid" billionaire.
At $100 per car, all you need is 5 million in order to generate the same amount of orders.
6) In a nutshell, such a move a few days prior to the upcoming ER is quite sus, as it does almost nothing to spur demand or help the cash situation. How can this help $TSLA? It makes generating fake orders much more affordable.
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