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, 5 tweets, 2 min read
NEW: Tory MPs are telling Labour MPs that if they vote down the deal they will lose their seats in a 'People v Parliament' election

But if they vote it through, an election would happen next year and be about issues other than Brexit

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/bo…
Tories also telling Labour MPs in Leave seats that voting the deal through will kill off the threat of Farage and the far-right

If Brexit is resolved the far-right will disappear from their constituencies, if not it will grow, Labour MPs are being told

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/bo…
No10 fighting to nail down votes of the 21 former Tory rebels

Had previously been thought most would come over

But now fears these rebels could remain in the high single figures

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/bo…
Tory whips balancing act

Some Spartans not backing deal yet, asking for commitment to leave transition period on WTO terms if a FTA cannot be agreed

Paterson a problem

But make that commitment and the former Tory rebels and Labour MPs will fall away

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/bo…
Some Spartans frustrated at Sammy Wilson / Ian Paisley Jnr / Nigel Dodds counter-whipping operation trying to get them to oppose the deal

One says Wilson in particular is being “annoying” and is hell-bent on no-deal

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/bo…
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More from @alexwickham see all

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Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
NEW: Amber Rudd, Philip Hammond and David Gauke in talks with other Tory rebels to form a new political grouping at the election

— would have a shared Brexit position
— pool resources, donations & polling
— one source says it'd be a party in all but name

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
Philip Hammond confirms to BuzzFeed News that if he doesn’t get the Tory whip back “I would look to cooperate with any other ex-Tories standing in similar circumstances” buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
Around 10 of the ex-Tory rebels are in talks about joining the new grouping

If Boris Johnson runs on a no-deal manifesto they expect more Tory MPs to join them

They are hoping to be kingmakers in a hung parliament

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
Read 4 tweets
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Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
NEW: A rift has opened up at the top of Boris Johnson’s govt between advisers loyal to Dom Cummings and other senior Johnson allies

— “parallel government” run by Eddie Lister
— top team split on aggressive media strategy
— election campaign power grab

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/do…
Key dividing line between the Vote Leave faction which sees leaving the EU as the end goal and is willing to achieve it by any means necessary, and a group of advisers led by Lister who see Johnson’s administration as a long-term project beyond Brexit

buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/do…
A Tory election campaign against the Brexit Party would have to harden its position on any future deal, offering a reduced Brexit bill and rejecting ECJ involvement on citizens’ rights, as well as no compromise on the backstop, government official said buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/do…
Read 5 tweets
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Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
Baroness Hale mocking Boris Johnson over his “girly swots” gaffe this morning
People at the top of government astonished at Baroness Hale today

Govt source: "The independence of the judiciary and their slideshow choices is not something we can question."

Second govt source: "This shows a clear lack of judgment. Remind me what her job title is again?"
And another...

Third govt source gets in touch: “You wouldn't get Supreme Court Justices in the US publicly bragging about defeating the executive and mocking the President. But apparently our system is above board and theirs is somehow something to be feared.”
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So @BorisJohnson says the backstop must go and he won’t bring @theresa_may deal back to Parliament.

Is that still possible? Maybe. At least nominally. I set out here what has to happen at breakneck speed. /1

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
As @tnewtondunn reported there’s now several cabinet ministers that want a deal. That includes some big beasts am told. Gove and Javid - though don’t know who the three he referenced were.

BUT, as always, Q is what deal? /2
Understand that Frost been given leeway to go further on SPS and industrial goods, but that’s still piecemeal ‘slice n dice’ backstop. Won’t fly. Need to tackle customs. /3
Read 7 tweets
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Simon Wardley #EEA
@swardley
Government to ask Queen to suspend Parliament - bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… ... oh, and what future plans they will be, targeted vote winners declaring a "new type of more caring Conservative" backed by a message of "I deliver" and just primed for a general election ... but wait ...
... they do this every time -
Since we can assume that despite of the voter friendly policies announced the actual result will be more cuts to public services and reduction of working rights - ... the real question is ...
Read 8 tweets
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Hansi Lo Wang
@hansilowang
NEW: Commerce @SecretaryRoss has directed @uscensusbureau "to produce Citizenship Voting Age Population (CVAP) information prior to April 1, 2021 that states may use in redistricting," according to document uploaded July 3 to RegInfo.gov👇
documentcloud.org/documents/6192…
2. Using citizenship information for redistricting was highlighted in both President Trump's July 11 executive order and GOP strategist Thomas Hofeller's unpublished study that concluded it would be "advantageous to Republicans & Non-Hispanic Whites"👇
3. The doc also says @CommerceGov determined there's "not sufficient time to develop an alternative record to support" #CitizenshipQuestion. RegInfo.gov says it was uploaded July 3, more than week before President Trump said he's abandoning Q👇
reginfo.gov/public/do/PRAV…
Read 12 tweets
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Glen O'Hara
@gsoh31
So, where are we today? Overall I would say that the #Labour #Corbyn strategy is working well, and is likely to see Jez in No. 10 at some point in the next year or just over a year.
The #Conservatives are experiencing what looks to me rather like damage ERM crisis did to them in autumn 1992. Have lost 13 points (!) with @YouGov in just six weeks. Bear in mind that experience shows that such falls get worse for some time - could be headed v low.
The moment MV3 failed to pass was a clarifying one, and therefore welcome here - had been wondering for years what was keeping the CON score so high. It was #Brexit. We're now at 50/50 whether it even happens. They will struggle to recover.
Read 14 tweets
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Sergio Graziosi
@GraziosiSergio
What the hell is @jeremycorbyn doing?
Why is he enabling #Tory #Brexit?
Is this the final betrayal?
No, it isn't.
It's the predicted effect of decisions taken 2-3 years ago. All things considered, it's not as bad as it could have been (thanks to #StopBrexit crowd).

Thread.
1/n
To understand why, I need to outline 2 important mechanisms that most people, politicians and commentators seem to ignore, dismiss or simply don't get. They have different and somewhat opposite consequences, but are both decisive in the current & foreseeable predicaments.
2/n
1st and foremost: the biggest constraint that applies to political decision-making comes from the past decisions & policies.
It is a massive constraint.
Cameron COULD NOT convincingly campaign for #Remain, because his own policies CREATED the discontent channelled by #Leave.
3/n
Read 23 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. #Labour now seem to be unified in calling for a customs union. This to me looks like the sleepy kid at the back of the class suggesting something to make it look like he was paying attention. It is a non-solution to #Brexit. Thread...
2. Because it has the word "customs" in the name, they believe it has magical properties that bring about frictionless trade. As the Commission pointed out a year ago, this simply is not the case.
3. Frictionless trade is the byproduct of a system of behind the border controls which is largely to do with regulatory harmonisation - ie the single market. Without it, there will need to be controls at or near the border.
Read 14 tweets

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