Okay, so
A Chinese troll in their infinite wisdom called me out for saying "over a million" detained in Xinjiang.
So in this thread I might explain the logic behind my personal assessment of "over a million", in fact well over a million. Closer to 2.5mil, by my assessment.
A Chinese troll in their infinite wisdom called me out for saying "over a million" detained in Xinjiang.
So in this thread I might explain the logic behind my personal assessment of "over a million", in fact well over a million. Closer to 2.5mil, by my assessment.
Now, first some disclaimers, this isn't based on any authoritative analysis, and it shouldn't be seen as a definitive number. There are no accurate figures, so each person working on Xinjiang has to do their best in their own personal judgement with very limited information. 2/
All that this is is my personal best-guess. I would absolutely love for more data to come in to inform it further, and for reporting I would still recommend saying 800k-2mil, which is the most commonly bandied around figure. 3/
My personal estimate (2.5mil) starts with incredibly reporting done recently by @EmilyZFeng. npr.org/2019/10/08/764…
Please read this story generally, but what strikes me is the data NPR has compiled showing the number of criminal cases prosecuted in Xinjiang. 4/
Please read this story generally, but what strikes me is the data NPR has compiled showing the number of criminal cases prosecuted in Xinjiang. 4/
@EmilyZFeng Digging into that data it shows that between 2013 and 2016, 147,046 people were tried in Xinjiang, or roughly 3,050 people per month.
2017 shows 215,833 people tried.
2018 shows 362,872 people tried. 5/
2017 shows 215,833 people tried.
2018 shows 362,872 people tried. 5/
@EmilyZFeng Using a slightly arbitrary start date of March 2017 we can then estimate that ~573,000 people have been criminally charged in Xinjiang between the crackdown beginning and the end of 2018.
(215,833+362,872)-(3,060*2) = 572,585 people.
(215,833+362,872)-(3,060*2) = 572,585 people.
@EmilyZFeng This can also be seen as 26,000 people per month
(or 35 people charged per hour - if you want to see it like that).
Assuming that the rate of trials has remained the same (there are suggestions both anecdotally and in the jump between 2017 & 2018 that the rate has increased) 7/
(or 35 people charged per hour - if you want to see it like that).
Assuming that the rate of trials has remained the same (there are suggestions both anecdotally and in the jump between 2017 & 2018 that the rate has increased) 7/
@EmilyZFeng ... then by extrapolating it out to October 2019, you get a rough estimate of 800,000 people detained in Xinjiang since the crackdown began.
(572585/22)*31 = 806,824 people.
8/
(572585/22)*31 = 806,824 people.
8/
@EmilyZFeng The next data point is Gene Bunin's (@shahitbiz) victims database. This has testimony relating to around 5,400 victims of the crackdown in Xinjiang.
Sightly over 3,000 of these victims have information about their current status in Xinjiang. 9/
Sightly over 3,000 of these victims have information about their current status in Xinjiang. 9/
@EmilyZFeng @shahitbiz It lists 628 people who have been formally sentenced to prison, and 1,579 people in "concentration camps", or the 3 tiers of informal detention (see this for info on that ) that include centres for political re-education and detention-without-charge. 10/
@EmilyZFeng @shahitbiz In other words, using Gene's sample of ~3,000 (not perfect but not bad), for every person in prison, there are 2.5 people detained in informal detention facilities.
628:1579 = 1:2.51
11/
628:1579 = 1:2.51
11/
@EmilyZFeng @shahitbiz If there are 800,000 people that have been imprisoned since the crackdown began (all this work is so imprecise that we may as well assume a conviction rate of 100% - this article says 99.9% over all of China), there are 2,000,000 people in informal detention.
800k*2.5 = 2mil. 12/
800k*2.5 = 2mil. 12/
@EmilyZFeng @shahitbiz If you look at the total number of people imprisoned, plus informal detention (the two are inextricably linked in Xinjiang and the distinction arbitrary), this logic gives you a total of 2,800,000 people detained as part of this crackdown. 13/
@EmilyZFeng @shahitbiz If you re-do these calculations removing the baseline conviction rate of 3k/month you get 2.5mil:
(800-(3*31)) * 2.5 + ((800-(3*31) = 2,474,500 people
These figures add up to around 1/5 of the total official population of this minorities most targeted.
14/
(800-(3*31)) * 2.5 + ((800-(3*31) = 2,474,500 people
These figures add up to around 1/5 of the total official population of this minorities most targeted.
14/
@EmilyZFeng @shahitbiz Now. There are A LOT of assumptions here, many that cannot be backed up by any evidence, some that are contradicted by it.
And that's the reason I've never said "2.5mil" only "over a million", there is enough uncertainty to bar this figure from being at all valid. 15/
And that's the reason I've never said "2.5mil" only "over a million", there is enough uncertainty to bar this figure from being at all valid. 15/
@EmilyZFeng @shahitbiz But I thought I would share that logic to explain why I am absolutely confident in saying "over a million", and almost certainly well over a million at that. 16/
@EmilyZFeng @shahitbiz I'll finish up (I promise) with some of the assumptions that prevent this estimate from being a concrete estimate (so pls don't say I told you to say 2.5mil).
Firstly, I don't know how NPR established that count.
It lists 7 sources, I trust NPR, but can't guarantee anything. 17/
Firstly, I don't know how NPR established that count.
It lists 7 sources, I trust NPR, but can't guarantee anything. 17/
@EmilyZFeng @shahitbiz There is especially the possibility that some trials were counted twice by multiple sources.
I also assume a constant rate (and ratio) of detention. This isn't true. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the rate of imprisonment has increased as informal detainees are charged. 18/
I also assume a constant rate (and ratio) of detention. This isn't true. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the rate of imprisonment has increased as informal detainees are charged. 18/
@EmilyZFeng @shahitbiz @shahitbiz has shared this graph showing victims who have had their status updated in the last 2 months. This shows more recent detention status updates showing imprisonment. This change has mostly been this year and isnt reflected in the NPR data or my calculations. 19/
@EmilyZFeng @shahitbiz Additionally, the victims database is heavily skewed towards Northern Xinjiang and Kazakh detainees (see this chart of location), many of the trends probably do not apply equally across Xinjiang.
Also there are victims that have not had their status updated but have changed. 20/
Also there are victims that have not had their status updated but have changed. 20/
@EmilyZFeng @shahitbiz There is also a trend of detainees 'graduating' from the lower security tiers of detention, namely political re-education centres. These 'graduates' have mostly been released into village/neigbourhood arrest or coerced labour.
This isn't included in my calculations at all.
21/
This isn't included in my calculations at all.
21/
@EmilyZFeng @shahitbiz I guess all this comes down to me saying please don't quote the 2,500,00 figure from me, it could be well off, but I doubt it's 250% off, so, all in all I'm very confident in saying over a million have been detained in the Xinjiang crackdown. 22/
@EmilyZFeng @shahitbiz I wouldn't share this stream of logic at all, except 1) it got challenged and I owe transparency, and
2) there are almost no transparent estimates of numbers, i thought it was worth sharing at least one, even as imprecise as it is.
23/23
2) there are almost no transparent estimates of numbers, i thought it was worth sharing at least one, even as imprecise as it is.
23/23
