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, 4 tweets, 1 min read
This becomes the most important day of all Brexit. The climax and the crux, when Brexit itself hangs in the balance.
the government loses its programme motion, it won't be able to pass the Withdrawal Bill soon enough to avoid an extension, and once that's in place we get the general election we so richly deserve, with Brexit unresolved.
But if the programme motion passes, there is probably a majority for the whole Bill as well. Then the extension will no longer apply, we will leave in nine days days, and then the general election will come with Brexit resolved.
We need the government to lose this vote, or the country is very near lost.
The very crux of Brexit
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
If the Tories were paying a proper strategist, they would have started from the fact they've got no majority and that the law requires an extension,
So you assume the inevitable. You're going to get an extension by law, and you've got no majority. So when do you want the election?

You choose an election date and work backwards from there. They haven't done that or the election would be in November
The time of year, and the state their government is in, the worst is the longer they leave it.
If the election starts barging into December, the weather and Christmas will fuck it all up.
But if they leave it till January the government will stagnate for another three months.
Read 4 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
It's running away from them now. They're about to lose November 28th.
After today the earliest election day will be December 5th.
And after that it's too late because all the halls are booked for Christmas.
See, they just do not think ahead. The extension is going to be useless now. The election won't come until January, and we'll need yet another extension to cover that.
Again and again I just end up mystified how they let this happen to themselves.
I mean, do none of them possess a calendar?
Read 4 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
Cummings is actually talking sense to them right now, if they had the brain to see it.
The longer they leave it before an election, the worse it's going to be.
This isn't even worthy of discussion. Brexit is a ticking stunk bomb, and it is going to go off eventually.
If that happens in a minority government, the Tories will lose control of events. Then they will get an election in the middle of winter, in the middle of chaos.
Because the economy is going to react in all sorts of ways you can't foresee. Serious, Brexit is like a shitbomb waiting to go off in their face.
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
Taking a step back at the moment, after today it is hard to see how Boris Johnson can still legitimately claim to have "just the right amount of time" to agree _and_ ratify a #Brexit deal before October 31.

Here is a short thread looking at the timeline:
/1
The first draft of the original Withdrawal Agreement was published on 28 February 2018.

The draft was finalised on 24 November 2018, after month of careful negotiations on the text.

The UK has not put forward alternative proposals for Northern Ireland yet. /2
In November 2018, the UK government lobbied the other EU27 countries for a special #EUCO to adopt the withdrawal agreement.

Main argument was that it could not wait until the December European Council, as the UK would need 4 month to get the WA through the Commons. /3
Read 6 tweets
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Sam Hooper
@SamHooper
Thread: There’s an insidious argument that it is automatically “un-conservative” to oppose anything that has been baked into the British political landscape for more than a couple of decades. Hence Brexit is supposedly a sign of the Tories being irresponsibly revolutionary. /1
Now, I’m the last one to disagree with the notion that this government has been (and continues to be) cavalier and irresponsible in flirting with a disruptive No Deal Brexit, which was certainly not the Brexit which I and many others campaigned and voted for. /2
But the lazy idea being bandied around by journalists, commentators and others (@sullydish has a slightly more measured take) is that Brexit is inherently un-conservative. Which sounds pleasing until you actually stop and properly think about it. /3
Read 34 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Corbyn as caretaker PM? Seriously?

Yes, we want to stop no deal #Brexit, yes we'll go to any lengths, but the solution must be realistic, and it's leader must have some integrity

Corbyn as a caretaker PM is a non starter, and it's surprising so many have been taken in
2) Firstly, Corbyn is simply untrustworthy on #Brexit. Have we all forgotten the 2 steps forward 3 steps back fence sitting? The comments from front benchers undermined within hours by a "Labour spokesman"?

Nothing Corbyn says on Brexit can be taken at face value
3) he is a leaver, this is his priority, so the very idea of a committed but dishonest brexiter leading an anti #Brexit government is too ludicrous to even contemplate. Every day of his premiership would be one of forked tongue non commitments to help shepherd Brexit
Read 10 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So before everyone (particularly Tory Party leadership candidates like @MattHancock) gets carried away with talk about 'time limits' or 'timetables' for the Irish backstop...based on some hypothesising by observers like me and @BBCkatyaadler we need to talk... 1/thread #brexit
@MattHancock @BBCkatyaadler First the difference between 'time-limits' and 'time-tables' as mooted by Katya in this thread which has the attention of @BethRigby
@jameskirkup and others... /2

@MattHancock @BBCkatyaadler @BethRigby @jameskirkup Katya frames talk of a 'time-table' with makes key point I have also made in recent threads, which is that realpolitik means new PM gets a hearing for a new approach, but that the new PM's credibility will rest on their ability to demonstrate majorities in Parliament for a deal/3
Read 20 tweets
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Simon Fraser
@SimonFraser00
We may (or may not) have a #Brexit withdrawal deal soon. Everyone is obsessing about day to day political tactics. This is short sighted. We need to think ahead. If we get a deal what would follow? Here is a thread on this.
With a deal, in the short term nothing will change & everything will change. Nothing, because in a transition period we remain aligned to EU law & regulation, though without a voice in decisions. Everything, because we will be legally out & there will be no way back for years.
Looking further ahead, we have not imagined, let alone thought through, the political, economic, social & psychological adjustments invoved in this reversal of over 40 years of national strategy, nor the national identity we want to have.
Read 13 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets

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