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, 6 tweets, 2 min read
I enjoy saying on Twitter what is going on in Chinese economics and finance. Having people think I'm crazy or don't know what I'm talking about then have it happen or the ideas confirmed. I've been saying for sometime China is short USD and this plays into what is happening 1/n
Well now a very notable Chinese economist, who knows Chinese FX probably as well as anyone, has said the same thing. He starts by noting how tight things are and the spillover effects translate.google.com/translate?sl=a…
As you have also heard me mention, the RMB does not trade globally. It trades primarily with Hong Kong and a little bit in the ROW. This means, USD access (roughly 98-99% of all RMB trades) goes through Hong Kong. This means Hong Kong economy steers the RMB-USD market
So how much money does China have on a liquid basis to keep the wheels of commerce moving? You're not gonna like the answer:
This is also exactly why the protesters really have a very strong position. Doing anything overtly severe, sending in the PLA or having a mass slaughter, could really harm the CCP and Chinese economy. This explains the strategy of trying to wear down the Hong Kong protesters
In short: China does not have the USD and if something happens to Hong Kong that will materially impact China's ability to get USD threatening the whole system. Done.
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Effeminate Chinese Celebrity Balding
@BaldingsWorld
I have three separate yet somewhat linked thoughts about the not a trade war trade war so I'm going to thread them. 1. I appreciate people going after the Trump administration for not investing in Asia (financial aid, military assets, diplomatic etc). I have problems with 1/n
critique though I agree with it wholeheartedly. Where were you pre-2017. It's like the world just discovered this problem. This isn't a Trump issue. It's a USG problem. Then for any significant increase, it is going to require legislation to authorize spending. Guess who 2/n
Controls the purse strings according to the Constitution? Let's authorize more spending for a variety of things to increase US investment throughout the Indo-Pacific and Africa. Second, I love when people make valid criticisms but never think about the other side or 3/n
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Effeminate Chinese Celebrity Balding
@BaldingsWorld
So thread on the proposal by the working group. I'm going to break these up into various issues. First, the group is comprised of both foreign and Chinese professors in roughly equal measure. I didn't run stats but most Chinese work at Chinese universities and are known 1/n
CCP boosters. Keep that in mind going forward. Almost all foreign professors as best I know them, with a couple exceptions, have no real experience in China other than the 4 Seasons/Ritz tour crowd. All of this will be important later but note it at the outset. 2/n
Second, the proposal makes no actual policy or negotiation proposals, but rather a rather broad frameworks of how to proceed. This isn't necessarily wrong but important to note. Why it matters is that it is difficult to see how functionally, their framework would move beyond 3/n
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Effeminate Chinese Celebrity Balding
@BaldingsWorld
Great story from Vietnam. An expat woman walking along the river in Saigon witnesses a hospital vehicle pull up, unload a lot hospital marked containers and dump then into the river. She video taped this scene and it goes mini viral. A news organization picks up on this story 1/n
Concerned about what nature of medical waste they are throwing in the river, the news organization gets an interview with the hospital. They explain that in Vietnam as good luck and health, family and well wishers bring fish to patients in the hospital. So the hospital has 2/n
All these extra fish so they send guys with containers of fish to the river everyday to dispose of these fish. Had no idea bringing fish to a hospital in Vietnam meant live long and propser.
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