Polygenic risk predictions for IVF embryos are reaching the market. Story and some further observations (thread)
technologyreview.com/s/614690/polyg…
technologyreview.com/s/614690/polyg…
2/ The company selling these tests is called @GenomPrediction It's like 23andMe report, but for embryos. Here is a demo scorecard from the company, ranking an embryo by disease risk. 
@GenomPrediction 3/
Another picture of exemplar reports, this time with two embryos. Because you would be comparing them, and selecting the "best"...though what that means is up for debate.
Another picture of exemplar reports, this time with two embryos. Because you would be comparing them, and selecting the "best"...though what that means is up for debate.
@GenomPrediction 4/ Here is a picture of the company's booth at the annual meeting of the American Society for Reproductive Medicine (@asrm) in Philadelphia.
"She has your partner's ears and smile. Just not their risk for diabetes."
"She has your partner's ears and smile. Just not their risk for diabetes."
@GenomPrediction @ASRM So, a baby is made from an embryo selected from among several available to have the lowest risk of T1D.
Is this a designer baby?
Is this a designer baby?
@GenomPrediction @ASRM 5/ One of the people i quote in the article is genetic counselor @laurahercher . She previously wrote for us that children selected to try and make them disease free can be considered "designer" babies. technologyreview.com/s/612258/are-w…
6/ Laura wrote about using embryo diagnostic for an interesting gene, for dystonia. A family was selecting embryos without it. Its interesting because dystonia isn't fully penetrant -- that is, you might get it or might not get it. A little like the polygenic conditions
7/Also because family didnt need IVF. They were fertile. They did it to avoid the chance of disease.
What makes this designer-y is that its elective, costs money and isnt available to all (i.e. if uninformed, unwilling, or without the $$ for IVF +_ test)
What makes this designer-y is that its elective, costs money and isnt available to all (i.e. if uninformed, unwilling, or without the $$ for IVF +_ test)
8/ Ah, timely comment from a Tweeter taking the view view that selecting for conditions based on risk, not certainty, is the definition of eugenics.
I would say just the newest step in consumer eugenics.
I would say just the newest step in consumer eugenics.
9/ Eric Topol weighing in. I want to say something next about these very negative reactions, and where they might ignore the possibilities of this technology
10/ Negative takes are based on some combination of disgust at picking babies and belief that it's not technically feasible to do it. If the scores are not accurate or meaningful, then the product is fradulent and very bad indeed
11/ Recently @shaicarmi at Hebrew U. modelled what "gain" you would get in IQ and height if you picked from small groups of embryonic siblings with current predictors.
He concluded on average 2.5 cm and 2.5 IQ points. But often you'd pick wrong, too.
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
He concluded on average 2.5 cm and 2.5 IQ points. But often you'd pick wrong, too.
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
12/ The paper led to triumphant reactions from opponents like this one.
But the conclusion that embryo selection isnt plausible is a claim much bigger than the Israeli research made.
But the conclusion that embryo selection isnt plausible is a claim much bigger than the Israeli research made.
13/ Carmi himself disagrees with the "not plausible" claim. he says selecting against diseases (you get them or you dont) may have a different profile than trying to affect what's called a continuous trait (i.e. height).
14/The company, Genomic Prediction, probably has the best model results with type 1 diabetes. (a disease which founder Nathan Treff has). Claims that choosing between 2 embryos reduced risk 45%. Choosing between 5 or so reduce it by ~>70%,.
15/ polygenic risk score commentator offers that Type 1 diabetes is a special case. Its polygenic, but dominated by a few genes (i think). so t1d success may not say much about the overall idea.
16/ In 2018 we put "polygenic risk scores" on our list of breakthrough technologies. This article is useful to get an overview of the technology, and where it comes from. (Mostly discussing applications in adults.)
17/ If you talk about polygenic predictions for intelligence (DNA IQ tests) things get hot very fast.
Half the world is saying that just can't be. The other half is saying the predictions are surprisingly decent.
Here's a story and a thread about that.
Half the world is saying that just can't be. The other half is saying the predictions are surprisingly decent.
Here's a story and a thread about that.
18/ The company Genomic Prediction appears extensively in the documentary Human Nature by @wondercollab which is having its New York City premier tomorrow, Saturday Nov9., at 11:45am @DOCNYCfest film fest. Tickets here
docnyc.net/film/human-nat…
docnyc.net/film/human-nat…
@wondercollab @DOCNYCfest 19/ Here is some of the description and disclaimer on the polygenic embryo test.
accuracy reduced "in demographics different than the causcasian training set."
accuracy reduced "in demographics different than the causcasian training set."
