1/10: We are 12 days from legal #Brexit. What will happen on 31 Jan? What will it feel like on 1 Feb? More important, what will happen after that? In a nutshell, nothing will change & everything will change. And harder choices lie ahead. Thread of 10...
2/10: On 31 Jan BJ will declare #Brexit done & hail a brave new world. Big Ben may bong. Flags will come down. But on 1 Feb we will wake to an eerily familiar world. Until Dec 31 at least all rights & obligations of EU membership continue, though we will not be at the table..
3/10: Ministers will soon say that the fact the sky has not fallen in after we have ”got #Brexit done” proves “doomsters & gloomsters” wrong. They will try to shift public debate on to other things. But Brexit will still be there & will not be done..
4/10: We will just be starting a new phase. On 1 Feb the clock will start to tick again, this time towards a more real #Brexit deadline, when we will leave in deed not just in word. Currently that date is 31 Dec 2020..
5/10: And although nothing will have changed, everything will have changed psychologically because from 1 Feb we will be negotiating with #EU as an outside country. For the first time we will be overtly charting a different course, which our political rhetoric will play up..
6/10: So far we have been making theoretical choices about the future. Soon the choices will become real, with real costs. Two things will determine what happens this year: the timeline we set & the degree of divergence we pursue. These #Brexit choices are both in UK hands..
8/10: And if UK insists on divergence from #singlemarket regulation & “level playing field” in order to compete with EU the result will be that #EU competes back by reducing acces to our largest trade market. They want a constructive outcome, but will not be giving freebies..
9/10: Both sides need formal negotiating mandates. I expect little progress by summer because the agenda is huge & major choices have not been made. Expect a summer blame game & a scramble in Sept to put together some sort of deal in Oct for ratification by year end...
10/10: Best guess now, unless BJ shifts on formal extension, is some sort of partial #Brexit deal at end of 2020 to be followed by further negotiation. In other words extension by another name. New trade frictions will kick in & uncertainty continue.
