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f you are the Cons and you need to squeeze the Brexit party vote as low as possible, then reactivating public concerns on immigration - always UKIP/BXP's strongest issue and one where you have lost public trust - seems v risky.

thetimes.co.uk/article/michae…
If Nigel Farage were looking for an attack line to get the BXP back into the conversation, "two decades of Con and Lab failed open border policies" is more or less perfect.
Its also once again Tories being unable to resist the "short term attack line" sweet jar, harming their longer term credibility. They are not proposing the kind of radical immigration controls implied by this piece, but instead a liberal points regime focussed on economic gains
The Conservatives had a major advantage on immigration for 40 years prior to the 2010 Coalition. Their daft "tens of thousands" pledge, and Theresa May's obstinacy, threw that away in 18 months. It hasn't returned - voters tend to say either "no party" or prefer radical right.
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More from @robfordmancs see all

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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Oh goodness, seeing lots of this now. Seems "centrist Tories" are the new "Labour leavers" - an ongoing demonstration of psychological biases towards groups that are available and vibrant to journalists despite being perceived as more important than they actually are.
Labour Leavers are not important as people think because most Labour voters in Leave seats are Remainers.

Similarly, "centrist (i.e. Remain-ish) Tories" are not as important as people think in Tory Remain seats because most Tory voters in Remain seats are Leave voters
Therefore is is *bad* for the Tories that BXP are standing in Labour leave seats and it is *good* for the Tories that BXP are not standing in Con Remain seats. But an awful lot of people now seem to think exactly the opposite.
Read 3 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
The Brexit Party standing down where Cons won in 2017 certainly helps Cons *defend* seats. But Cons didn't get a majority last time, and they need a majority next time. They need to gain seats. And BXP standing against them in Lab marginals hurts their ability to *gain* seats
To put it another way, there's no magical difference between Walsall North (Con held marginal, 74% Leave) and Stoke North (Lab held marginal, 72% Leave). BXP standing down helps in the first, and would help in the second too. Not sure why anyone would think otherwise.
And, lets' remember, this is an election where Cons are on the *offensive* not the *defensive* - if there is a net swing to them, then we shouldn't expect them to lose many seats they currently hold anyway. And those Lab Leave marginals are their key target territory.
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
True. But then: also true of the previous election. And the election before that.
For example: the Conservatives wouldn't have lost their majority in 2017 if it wasn't for the major swing away from them in Southern/Remain regions. And they wouldn't have been able to form a govt if it wasn't for the major swing towards them in Scotland.
Meanwhile, in 2015, an election portrayed as a disaster for Labour actually featured a substantial swing towards them across England and Wales, but total collapse in Scotland, and Con majority was driven by LD collapse concentrated in particular kinds of seats
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
With the #Brexit Party rumoured to be standing only in pro-Leave Labour seats it begs the question: which ones?
#GE2019 - thread
Based simply on UKIP's 2015 GE result, where there is record of Farage support, then Heywood & Middleton, Rotherham, Dagenham & Rainham, Rother Valley, Hartlepool, G Grimsby, Wentworth & Dearne, Stoke N, Doncaster C, Dudley N, Bolton SE, Don Valley, Barnsley E all good picks
If you scroll down the list, though UKIP is still on 20%+, then you are looking at the likes of Makerfield, Kingston Hull East, Blyth Valley, Barking, Walsall North, South Shields, Barnsley Central, Houghton and Sunderland S, Ashfield
Read 7 tweets
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tony nog #Revoker
@tony_nog
1) The F Word
so I've been banging on about this clip (and the thread on the next tweet) all day

Now there's been a lot of talk about #Brexit Fascism,and a lot of counter talk saying it's ridiculous

But let's examine the evidence, because it's pretty grim
2) in a few short weeks we've seen suspension of parliament, and a number of supposedly moderate Tories pretending it's not a shut down

We've seen a populist PM who is now utterly shameful about lying in Parliament and to the public

3) but already we are seeing serious talk about how the PM could actually break the law. And this is so normalised now that it's a reasonable question for MPs or interviewers to ask "well, will you or won't you obey the rule of law?"

This is incredible
Read 13 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Who voted Brexit Party in 2019?

Demographics of the #Brexit Party vote at #ep2019

Source: our forthcoming work w/Clarke, Stewart & Whiteley
Worth thinking about this one alongside the Boris tax cut ...
Support for the Brexit Party by perceptions of being economically left behind
Read 3 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
1/ How might the Brexit Party hit the Conservative Party at a general election?

A short thread detailing figures in today's Telegraph bit.ly/2JHFILd

#EP2019 #EUelections2019
#brexit #brexitparty
2/ With Prime Minister May on her way out, the Brexit Party about to surge & the Conservative Party's future unclear we've run some numbers on how the Brexit Party could hit the Conservatives at a general election
3/ This combines constituency level data on 2017 general election with recent Westminster vote intention polls to estimate the flow of voters to the Brexit Party, giving us median and maximum estimates
Read 17 tweets
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Brexit Expires
@BrexitExpires
BXP has no manifesto, no detailed policies & no plan for #Brexit (no, "just walk away" isn't a serious plan outside of a pub!)

Why are people willing to vote for a shady outfit that isn't a party, has dodgy finances & will likely adopt #UKIP's *no work* habit?
#EUelections2019
What's more, BXP now say they want to run in the next GE, even though the leader admits #Brexit isn't the answer to any of our domestic problems — you know, all those problems Leave voters thought Brexit was going to fix.

#EUelections2019
Somehow it feels like this is all about the salary and perks for some of the BXP's candidates, and that they're not taking the business of representing our country in an international forum seriously - as indeed those who were previously part of UKIP never have.

#EUelections2019
Read 24 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

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