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So @Nigel_Farage has blinked first in his battle with @BorisJohnson. Concedes a Leave alliance without PM asking for one. Brexit Party will not compete 317 seats won by Tories in 2017 but will fight Labour & other parties in remaining seats. Boost for Boris 1/3
Reduces chances of minority Labour Govt & 2nd Ref. If he wins, Boris will be under strong pressure from Farage not to extend transition beyond Dec 2020 & to get Canada FTA with no alignment; these pledges were figleafs allowing Farage to scrap plan to field 600 candidates 2/3
But one caveat: Brexit Party could still stand in Lab-held marginals which backed Leave in 2016 referendum 3/3
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More from @Mij_Europe see all

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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Labour manifesto says that if public decide to Remain in its proposed referendum, “this must not mean accepting the status quo.” Calls for “radical reform” and “new political
direction” for EU so it tackles climate emergency, tax evasion, ending austerity & inequality 1/3
Message aimed at Leave-inclined voters & trade union members worried about possible shift towards Remain stance in campaign as Labour tries to squeeze Lib Dems to close gap with Tories 2/3
Labour manifesto says:”Only Labour will deliver a final say referendum.” Privately, senior Labour figures admit they will of course need backing of Lib Dems & SNP in hung parliament 3/3
Read 3 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
We are raising our % of a Tory majority from 40 to 45%. Our other probabilities are: Labour minority Govt (30%); Tory minority Govt (15%) or deadlock (10%). Throwing it forward, to what extent is Johnson’s post-election Brexit strategy being shaped by his campaign? Short thread
Without any real Cabinet discussion, @BorisJohnson has committed himself to a “super Canada plus” FTA with the EU “not based on any kind of political alignment” and promised not to extend the transition period beyond Dec 2020. Are these now hard constraints? 1/
Yes & no. These pledges were designed to persuade @Nigel_Farage to stand down his Brexit Party candidates but were only partially successful. Farage now hopes to land some Labour-held seats so his party holds balance of power in hung parliament to “keep Boris honest” on Brexit 2/
Read 15 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Conclusions like this make it necessary to revisit @anandMenon1 piece. The EU bent over backwards to deliver deal UK Govt wanted. @theresa_may failed to get it through Commons. Having spent 3yrs v close to EU side, think it's imp to correct some inaccuracies in @FT piece. Thread
A few days after 2016 Ref, senior German, French & Italian officials met privately in Berlin to caucus their response to Brexit. Besides determining there could be "no negotiations without notification", it was clear then that MS were *very* focussed on LT future relationship 1/
Contrary to Anand's claim that there was an "egregious failure" by MS to think about the LT relationship, for the first several months after Ref, that is, in fact, all they did. What changed? When @MichelBarnier started assembling TF50, they encouraged a different approach 2/
Read 14 tweets

Related threads

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John O'Connell
@jdpoc
#Tories Election Cock-Up Chaos so far - a continuing series :

01 - #Tories admit and apologise for a doctored, misrepresentative video of Kier Starmer. Tory MPs like @JohnnyMercerUK leave it on their feed and actively continue to spread.
@JohnnyMercerUK #Tories Election Cock-Up Chaos so far - a continuing series :

02 - #Tories Boris #Johnson gets booed out of Addenbrooke Hospital by staff and patients alike, unmentioned by #BBC, who were right there.
@JohnnyMercerUK #Tories Election Cock-Up Chaos so far - a continuing series :

03 - #Tories MP Jacob Rees Mogg blames #Grenfell victims for their own deaths. It takes him four days before he's forced to retract and apologise.
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
With the #Brexit Party rumoured to be standing only in pro-Leave Labour seats it begs the question: which ones?
#GE2019 - thread
Based simply on UKIP's 2015 GE result, where there is record of Farage support, then Heywood & Middleton, Rotherham, Dagenham & Rainham, Rother Valley, Hartlepool, G Grimsby, Wentworth & Dearne, Stoke N, Doncaster C, Dudley N, Bolton SE, Don Valley, Barnsley E all good picks
If you scroll down the list, though UKIP is still on 20%+, then you are looking at the likes of Makerfield, Kingston Hull East, Blyth Valley, Barking, Walsall North, South Shields, Barnsley Central, Houghton and Sunderland S, Ashfield
Read 7 tweets
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Chris #OpenSelection #GeneralStrike #JC4PM
@Socialist_Chris
Nigel Farage is a racist climate change denier who hides his tax dealings, supports authoritarian leaders across the globe and associates with known conspiracy theorists.

But do take my word for it. THREAD.
So, just to preface this. I won't be talking much about Brexit here. The reason being - it's been done. To death. And to the detriment of debate about how dangerous Farage actually is, and what he actually believes. We'll touch on it, but it ain't front row centre.
It's hard to know where to start with Farage, frankly. After doing the research that I have on him, it's stunning to think that he's the favourite for the European Elections. Sorry, stunning? I meant horrifying. But let's start with the young Farage, and work our way from there.
Read 66 tweets
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WaterBluSky
@MsMariaT
"Banks gave £450K to #Farage after Brexit vote"

Pymts for Chelsea home, Land Rover, trips to US-including to meet Trump and RNCCLE 2016🚩pymts to US lobbyist Gerry Gunster

Via "Rock Services Ltd" & "Southern Rock" 🧐

Russia ➡️"Diamond mines" ➡️Banks

theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
RECALL: BANKS: "In 12/18, So African intel officials confirmed to me that Banks, who owns diamond mines, had been the subject of two investigations by the Hawks....”

"This detailed @NewYorker investigation into Arron Banks, his Russian connections, and his opaque funding of the Leave.EU campaign makes an unanswerable case for a Mueller-style inquiry into whether the EU referendum was stolen."

Read 102 tweets
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Jennifer Cohn
@jennycohn1
What do Salvini, Farage, Brexit, and Trump have in common? Steve Bannon and his weapons-grade data analytics (Cambridge Analytica now called Emerdata). 1/
2/
3/
Read 22 tweets
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Julie Laumann #FBPE 🌎
@Otpor17
Arron Banks, the businessman who bankrolled Nigel Farage’s LeaveEU campaign, had multiple meetings with high-ranking Russian officials in the run-up to the #Brexit referendum, contradicting his denials @carolecadwalla @peterjukes theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
"The documents raise urgent and troubling questions about Arron Banks' relationship with the Russian government"
#CambridgeAnalytica whistleblower @chrisinsilico confirms: "I have personally seen these emails/documents and informed both British and American intelligence about them months ago"
Read 14 tweets

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