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So my #TacticalVoting #TacticalVote #GE2019 guide is now up to Version 4: jonworth.eu/2019-uk-genera…

The gist of it - now as before - is *how* to vote tactically is pretty clear in the vast majority of cases! 💪
In 500 of 632 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 constituencies how to vote tactically is crystal clear

In 86 of 632 which party is best placed to come 2nd is not clear, but tactical voting is unlikely to work

In just 46 of 632 there are ⁉️, or something is unusual - and even there clarity is emerging
Amongst the 46, according to my analysis:
1 is a special case
1 is a free choice Labour/Lib Dem
3 it's better to vote for the Independent candidate
21 it's better Lib Dem
10 it's better to choose Labour
That leaves only 10 where it's now unclear IMHO:
Broxtowe
Hendon
Isle of Wight
Kensington
Luton South
Putney
Truro & Falmouth
Watford
Ynys Mon
York Outer
If you want to vote tactically:
- make sure you're registered to vote
- trust the recommendations
- do some research if recommendations not clear
- check the recommendations again right before you vote

And here's the guide!
jonworth.eu/2019-uk-genera…

/ends
Ooops, since posting this I have found one more half complex case: East Lothian

That is now explained in my blog post - Remain people should vote Labour there, and it matters to stop the Tories winning.
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Related hashtags

#TacticalVoting #TacticalVote #GE2019

More from @jonworth see all

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
And really, ALL the #GE2019 #tacticalvoting sites have deficiencies.

@BestForBritain leans towards the Lib Dems, because its model makes more use of polling and recent elections, and less use of General Elections
@peoplesvote_uk has no transparency whatsoever, so we have no idea how it even works really

@remainutd is probably the best of the bunch, but updates its data and does not tell us how or what changed
@votetools leans in my view too heavily on the results of the 2017 General Election, and hence makes some wrong calls - but they at least kick ass in terms of transparency 💪
Read 5 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
One of the jobs of political parties in representative democracies is candidate selection

Then came #ge2019

Problem after problem after problem
I can’t remember an election where the main parties have messed this up so often and so many times

A thread of the most ridiculous and serious cases follows
1. Amjad Bashir
Tory, Leeds North East

Problems: anti semitism, was in UKIP

Status: still a candidate

thejc.com/news/tory-elec…
Read 26 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
OK, so it had to be done (or @syrpis prompted it!)

Using the #BrexitDiagram tech to make a #TacticalVoteDiagram!

If you want to vote tactically at #GE2019 this is what you need to do!
Note that this is done independently by me - it is not associated with any tactical voting site or recommendation!

As ever with my diagrams feedback is most welcome!

(But if your reaction to tactical voting is 🤬 then save your rant for some other time)
As ever all of this is designed for sharing and re-using!

High res PNG of this:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/tact…

Scaleable PDF:
techpolitics.eu/downloads/tact…

Blog post with the tactical vote guide and all the files:
jonworth.eu/tacticalvote/

/ends
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Mike Galsworthy
@mikegalsworthy
From a purely scientific perspective...

...this statement is the oddest thing I have ever read on #TacticalVoting.

If you cannot see why, you shouldn’t be anywhere near data-based decision-making.

But allow me to explain anyway.[thread]
Firstly, tactical voting is about voting for whomever has the best chance.

To do that, *accuracy* of data on voter intentions is the key thing you need.

To say “We don’t dispute the accuracy”

...means you acknowledge it is accurate.

And have nothing better.
So if you don’t dispute the accuracy, what’s the “but”?

The quote continues that “using a number of different pieces of data... is a better way”

This shows deep ignorance of how @BestForBritain derived their results... as they use tens of thousands of rows of data.
Read 9 tweets
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Simon Bye 🎪🔶
@UB5simon
#TacticalVoting is a good plan, and it was promoted heavily it before the 2017 GE. Here are two seats that the #Conservatives still won. In #RichmondPark, where #Labour are never going to win, they took 5773 votes. Zac Goldsmith won with a majority of 45.
In Hastings and Rye, The LibDems, who were never going to win, took 1885 votes. Amber Rudd won by 346 votes. Had the #LibDems and #Labour stood aside appropriately in these two seats, and told its supporters who to support, there would have probably been more favourable results.
My concern is that, like in 2017, the #TacticalVoting message won't reach everybody. It is a shame that at least one of these parties won't entertain any concept of not standing in some constituencies.
Read 9 tweets
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Edwin Hayward ('Slaying Brexit Unicorns' author)
@uk_domain_names
Tactical Voting for Students
If you're a student, you can register to vote at 2 addresses:
- your home address
- your term-time address.
You can only vote ONCE, but you can choose where you vote so long as you registered at both addresses.
#TacticalVoting #TacticalVote
Now, your vote might have much more "power" at home, or away. For example, your home address might be in a "one party seat" (i.e. one that never changes hands) but your term-time address is in a competitive seat, or vice versa.
So if you want to maximise the tactical value of your vote, think about the characteristics of the two places you *could* vote, then vote in the "correct" one (you can register to do it by post if that helps).
Read 5 tweets
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Turnaround & Cash Wars Veteran #FCA #ICAEW
@StuartLothian
UK's HUGE #Brexit threat stems from a bizarre & unprecedented confluence of 5 Groupings: 1/Political #Blukip Zealots/Little Englanders 2/Badly-informed & Manipulated Masses, 3/Dominant UK Media interests 4/FarRightRussian/USA/powers 5/Ultra-rich Financiers & Offshore Moguls. 1/10
Drill down: 1/#Blukip has been 'on this' for years. If not led by Dr Snake Oil himself #FarRightRage then by someone else? English Nationalism has been SO easy to stoke, in a totally policy-free way!, with Scottish Nationalism pushing its case daily and pissing off Anglos. 2/10
2/ Badly-informed/Manipulated Masses have been an easy target after years of Tory Austerity. They are 'useful idiots' to the four more deadly & focused groupings. Spoiler alert! They'll also be, by FAR, the very hardest HIT, so expect a backlash - when they finally wake up! 3/10
Read 17 tweets
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James Holland
@James7Holland
THREAD..

..on the biggest and baddest lobbyists in EU town

..the huge influence they have on EU lawmaking

..and how many represent interests from outside the EU.

/1
According to Transparency International @TI_EU, the lobby organisation that has held the most high-level meetings at the European Commission between 2014 and 2018 is @BusinessEurope.

"BusinessEurope?!?" you ask.

/2
@TI_EU @BusinessEurope It is hardly surprising that the vast majority of people have never heard of BusinessEurope.

There is a worrying media blackout about how a complex network of organisations lobby the #EU on behalf of the world largest corporations.

/3
Read 27 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
#EU leaders issue five paragraph statement in long-shot bid to change 100+ minds in #UK Parliament "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation.
2. The European Council reiterates that it wishes to establish as close as possible a partnership
with the United Kingdom in the future. It stands ready to embark on preparations immediately
after signature of the Withdrawal Agreement to ensure that negotiations can start as
soon as
possible after the UK’s withdrawal.
3. The European Council underlines that the backstop is intended as an insurance policy to
prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland and ensure the integrity of the Single Market. It
is the Union’s firm determination to work
Read 7 tweets

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