(Thread)
Q: Will Trump leave office in the next 6 months?
A: I don’t know, but I predict this: By Nov 2020, the GOP will be splintered and drastically weakened.
Today, Trump told Macron that the EU was partly formed to “take advantage of the US.”
Q: Will Trump leave office in the next 6 months?
A: I don’t know, but I predict this: By Nov 2020, the GOP will be splintered and drastically weakened.
Today, Trump told Macron that the EU was partly formed to “take advantage of the US.”
1/ It was mixed up in lots of word salad, but he said it.
Word salad allows Trump to say what he means, and allows his apologists to say that he didn’t say what everyone heard him say.
His hard-core supporters get the message:
EU bad.
The corollary, of course is:
Russia good.
Word salad allows Trump to say what he means, and allows his apologists to say that he didn’t say what everyone heard him say.
His hard-core supporters get the message:
EU bad.
The corollary, of course is:
Russia good.
2/ For why this signals a splintering of the GOP, we start with a little party history.
This thread brings us to the era of Nixon, when right wing authoritarians (RWAs) began drifting to the GOP.
Previously, RWAs were distributed among both parties.
This thread brings us to the era of Nixon, when right wing authoritarians (RWAs) began drifting to the GOP.
Previously, RWAs were distributed among both parties.
3/ As the RWAs congregated in the GOP, the GOP became increasingly dangerous.
RWAs, which we can also call reactionaries, are fundamentally different from genuine conservatives.
For more about RWAs, see: terikanefield-blog.com/authoritarian-…
RWAs, which we can also call reactionaries, are fundamentally different from genuine conservatives.
For more about RWAs, see: terikanefield-blog.com/authoritarian-…
4/
Conservatives are averse to change.
RWAs are averse to complexity.
While conservatives prefer the status quo, RWAs pine for a bygone era (often mythologized) when they believe world was more orderly and less chaotic.
The "again" in MAGA signifies reactionist politics.
Conservatives are averse to change.
RWAs are averse to complexity.
While conservatives prefer the status quo, RWAs pine for a bygone era (often mythologized) when they believe world was more orderly and less chaotic.
The "again" in MAGA signifies reactionist politics.
5/ A key difference between conservatives and RWAs—is that to return to a bygone era—RWAs are comfortable with radical and destabilizing change.
RWAs are willing to smash and destroy.
Lovers of the status quo are uncomfortable with smashing and destroying.
RWAs are willing to smash and destroy.
Lovers of the status quo are uncomfortable with smashing and destroying.
6/ Thus the GOP marriage af reactionaries and conservatives was always an uneasy alliance.
The problem traditional conservatives face is this:
There aren't enough conservatives in the population to achieve electoral majority.
The problem traditional conservatives face is this:
There aren't enough conservatives in the population to achieve electoral majority.
7/ In a nutshell what happened to the GOP was this: After the 1960s, the GOP, to achieve an electoral majority, invited RWAs into their party.
The conservatives evidently thought they'd keep the RWAs on the fringes, getting their votes without embracing their views.
The conservatives evidently thought they'd keep the RWAs on the fringes, getting their votes without embracing their views.
8/ This was a BAD idea.
RWAs did what RWAs do: They consolidated power until, in 2016, they took over the GOP.
As part of their propaganda, RWAs call themselves “conservatives.”
They aren't.
They co-opted the word "conservative" so they seem less dangerous.
RWAs did what RWAs do: They consolidated power until, in 2016, they took over the GOP.
As part of their propaganda, RWAs call themselves “conservatives.”
They aren't.
They co-opted the word "conservative" so they seem less dangerous.
9/ To return to a bygone era (the “again” in MAGA) RWAs seek to smash the status quo, including law enforcement and diplomatic agencies ⤵️
Whatever stands in Trump's way will be destroyed.
Smashing the status quo makes conservatives uncomfortable.
Whatever stands in Trump's way will be destroyed.
Smashing the status quo makes conservatives uncomfortable.
10/ To return to that bygone era, RWAs have aligned themselves with Russia.
For decades, Russia has beckoned to American’s far right wing, presenting themselves as the savior of the white race.
Russians infiltrated and funded the NRA.
For decades, Russia has beckoned to American’s far right wing, presenting themselves as the savior of the white race.
Russians infiltrated and funded the NRA.
11/ They turned the NRA from an organization in which members were gun enthusiasts of both parties to a radicalized militant group.
For more see:
Putin's Russia—unable to join EU because membership requires rule of law—set out to smash the EU.
For more see:
Putin's Russia—unable to join EU because membership requires rule of law—set out to smash the EU.
12/ Members of the Fox-Trump-GOP still lie about the Trump-Russia-Putin love affair.
See, for example⤵️
Mostly they hide their Russia-love in word salad for fear that telling the truth openly will cause members of the GOP leaders to jump ship.
See, for example⤵️
Mostly they hide their Russia-love in word salad for fear that telling the truth openly will cause members of the GOP leaders to jump ship.
13/ A minority party can’t afford to have anyone jumping ship.
Now courts are ruling against Trump.
cnbc.com/2019/12/03/tru…
When Trump tramples court orders, RWAs cheer.
Conservatives don't like it.
RWAs are fine with trampling courts and rule of law.
Conservatives are not.
Now courts are ruling against Trump.
cnbc.com/2019/12/03/tru…
When Trump tramples court orders, RWAs cheer.
Conservatives don't like it.
RWAs are fine with trampling courts and rule of law.
Conservatives are not.
14/ Last night—in the name of conservatives—Nunes, Jordan, and McCaul released their “defense” of Trump.
The “defense” openly disregards the truth and Rule of Law.
It's a blatant piece of propaganda.
If you have a strong stomach, it's here:
republicans-oversight.house.gov/wp-content/upl…
The “defense” openly disregards the truth and Rule of Law.
It's a blatant piece of propaganda.
If you have a strong stomach, it's here:
republicans-oversight.house.gov/wp-content/upl…
15/ To take one example, the defense argues that this justified Trump’s actions
It isn't true (there are no legitimate questions) and the logic doesn't hold: "legitimate" questions would still not justify the Trump-Giuliani push for an investigation into Biden.
It isn't true (there are no legitimate questions) and the logic doesn't hold: "legitimate" questions would still not justify the Trump-Giuliani push for an investigation into Biden.
16/ Another claim that Trump didn’t obstruct the inquiry because the inquiry was "unfair."
This defense which entirely frees the president from any oversight (it makes him the judge of ‘fairness’) and smashes the Constitutional order of separation of powers.
This defense which entirely frees the president from any oversight (it makes him the judge of ‘fairness’) and smashes the Constitutional order of separation of powers.
17/ Reading it, I wondered: What will Mitt Romney say?
Yes, Romney accepted Trump's endorsement.
Yes, he's been spineless and silent.
But surely this goes beyond what even Romney can stomach.
This morning, Romney said this:
Yes, Romney accepted Trump's endorsement.
Yes, he's been spineless and silent.
But surely this goes beyond what even Romney can stomach.
This morning, Romney said this:
18/ Napolitano said this⤵️
By making the subtext text—by coming right out and saying, "We are smashing the Constitution in the name of white supremacy" —those who lean conservative (as opposed to RWA) are forced to decide:
How much can they stomach?
By making the subtext text—by coming right out and saying, "We are smashing the Constitution in the name of white supremacy" —those who lean conservative (as opposed to RWA) are forced to decide:
How much can they stomach?
19/ What will happen in the next 6 months is this:
One by one, conservative leaders and prominent conservative members of the community will say, “Enough. I don’t support this.”
Like this⤵️
Trump and his supporters will turn on them with a vengeance.
One by one, conservative leaders and prominent conservative members of the community will say, “Enough. I don’t support this.”
Like this⤵️
Trump and his supporters will turn on them with a vengeance.
20/ The GOP is already a minority party.
When a minority party starts to splinter, it’s all over for that party.
We’ve had times in American history, by the way, when major political parties have gone the way of the Dodo and for a decade or two, we had one major party.
When a minority party starts to splinter, it’s all over for that party.
We’ve had times in American history, by the way, when major political parties have gone the way of the Dodo and for a decade or two, we had one major party.
21/ It happened after the Federalists (the party of Hamilton and Washington) imploded.
It happened after the Whigs dissolved.
If the GOP implodes, don’t worry.
We may have one strong party for a while, but then another will arise.
It happened after the Whigs dissolved.
If the GOP implodes, don’t worry.
We may have one strong party for a while, but then another will arise.
22/ If a strong center-left party can unite after the GOP splinters, we can quickly repair the damage caused by the past 60 years of radicalized GOP.
It took FDR two terms to take us from the age of robber barons to a new deal.
It took FDR two terms to take us from the age of robber barons to a new deal.
23/ History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. (Attributed to Mark Twain)
For new followers, I've talked about how repair can happen quickly. FDR taught us how ⤵️
End/ (I may answer questions or include comments)
For new followers, I've talked about how repair can happen quickly. FDR taught us how ⤵️
End/ (I may answer questions or include comments)
It is to be used only for reading purposes.
(I cannot believe I made a toilet joke. Well, it's buried at the bottom of a long thread🤣)
(I cannot believe I made a toilet joke. Well, it's buried at the bottom of a long thread🤣)
We've always had this problem.
They were pro-slavery, supported Jim Crow, opposed women's rights, thought it was fine to plunder and kill native people.
They'll always be with us.
When we get through this crisis, we need a better way to deal with them.
They were pro-slavery, supported Jim Crow, opposed women's rights, thought it was fine to plunder and kill native people.
They'll always be with us.
When we get through this crisis, we need a better way to deal with them.
