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THREAD: 

$BTC: On-chain and market cycle update 

TL:DR - Bull market is close!
1/  Price is aggressively bouncing off the 350 day moving average after a retest.

Why is that important...
2/ Price moving above the 350DMA has always indicated the start of Bitcoin bull markets. 

Unusually we just came back to retest it - the price we pay for going up too high back in May this year.  Thanks a lot Plustoken crew!
3/ Breaking down through it would signal an end (at least temporarily) to the bull market - not cool.

So bulls are defending this level very hard, as we are seeing right now.
4/ Also keep an eye on Bitcoin Network Momentum

At this point in prior cycles, we saw rapid increases in on-chain BTC volumes for 6-10wks b4 bull market started

Worth watching for now to see if this repeats following recent uptick

@woonomic version with coinmetrics data is 🔥
@woonomic 5/ Regarding BTC on-chain volumes: yes there is more custodial ownership now and coins held on exchanges, but I still suspect there will be a significant uplift in on-chain activity very soon.  It just may not need to go higher vs. the previous cycle to signal bull run.
@woonomic 6/ Combining the above with standard TA not included in this thread, I believe we are currently in the Late Bear phase of the market cycle

(Extract from the original article I wrote when sharing Bitcoin Network Momentum)

blog.goodaudience.com/bitcoin-networ…
@woonomic 7/ Combining all that with Golden Ratio Multiplier to look forward, likely we will have a big move up in Jan/Feb taking price up to the region of the 350 x 1.6 (green line), which will be approx $12-13k by then.

After a brief pause around there...number go up!
@woonomic 8/ For now we are still waiting for a few daily closes above the 2yr MA to really drive confidence.
@woonomic 9/ Summary:
- Bulls defending current price levels hard to stay above the 350MA
- Caution needed until we get closes above the 2yr MA
- Likely we grind up slowly for the next 6-10wks while Network Momentum increases
- Then an explosive move up in Jan-Feb up to $13-$14k area
🚀
@woonomic 10/ Live charts here: lookintobitcoin.com/charts/

Alerts and newsletter here: lookintobitcoin.com/indicators/

End of thread. Cheers.
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Philip Swift
@PositiveCrypto
1/ $BTC scenario planning:

Touching the 200DMA yesterday was strong bull market support. 

Decent chance we bounce from here...but if we don't it's worth looking at what is probable if we brake down again.
2/ This red candle lines up with the 0.618 which I believe would act as very strong support, given we are in a bull market. 
Shoutout for @filbfilb for pointing out the 0.618 to me when we were talking earlier.
@filbfilb 3/ *IF* we got down to that level, it would also align with a retest of the two year moving average, which I have tweeted about previously.  This is an old chart that shows it retesting in previous cycles.
Read 5 tweets
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Philip Swift
@PositiveCrypto
1/ Introducing: The Golden Ratio Multiplier.

A new tool that helps us understand the cyclical patterns of Bitcoin adoption.

In doing so, it identifies intracycle AND full market cycle price tops, therefore providing a very useful risk management tool.

medium.com/@positivecrypt…
2/ The article starts by noting how the 350 day moving average has acted as an axis for Bitcoin's major market cycles - once we break out, a new $BTC bull run begins.
3/ The new insight begins when that important moving average is multiplied by key numbers: the golden ratio (1.618) and numbers in the Fibonacci sequence (1,2,3,5,8,13,21)
Read 9 tweets
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Philip Swift
@PositiveCrypto
1. So much bullish hopium on my twitter feed today, incredible scenes. I am bullish short term but to keep some perspective...
2. NVT Signal is continuing to show a very similar pattern play out with the previous cycle. One final spike up before capitulation.
3. These remain my scenario options for the spike up. See previous tweets for the importance of these moving averages in this bear market.
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1/ During the last two bull markets, 3 of the 4 major corrections came in exactly at 2.5x the 200 DMA. Assuming that the low is in at $3150 and we are in a bull market, a current 200 DMA of $5070, suggests Correction #1 to take place at around $12,7k. Considering that
2/ the 200 DMA keeps increasing on the way up to 2.5x, the more realistic target would probably be around $13k. What would be the retracement target? During the last bull run, Correction #1 and #2 both came in at around 40%. This would put the downside target at around $7.8k.
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