Thread by @nicktolhurst

The dust has settled so heres a prediction you can hang your hat on:

Johnson will go Soft Brexit on the environment

& Hard Brexit on health.

- here’s why...

2/

Away from the noise of Brexit the EU is on the verge towards enshrining carbon neutrality & the easily most careful environmental regulations in the world.

Post Brexit UK cannot escape this particularly in sectors in car manufacture.

Johnson will cave in to these...

3/

Johnson won’t do this because he’s a great friend of the environment or because he’s turning his back on EU for Trump. He’ll do it as the North that voted him in and major companies will simply force him too.

The US won’t be that upset either as it uses UK to sell to EU.

4/

Johnson simply has no time to negotiate on this without risking hard Brexit.

the US main policies goals are Pharma and food not intraday EU car supply chains.

But they’ll ensure Johnson gives concessions in health sector health stead which does not impact EU single market.

5/

In other words Johnson will do everything he can to protect UKs place as trade port for inter & intra EU trade.

And the price will be the NHS.