As #Brexit wonks (@anandMenon1 and @stefanauer_hku) are busy discussing how we got here and who’s to blame - did the EU collaborate with remain as claimed in the FT -? Here’s my take on history. (Thread)
@anandMenon1 @stefanauer_hku First of all: the reason the May deal did not get through, substantively, was Northern Ireland. That was the one critical point, so we can focus on that.
@anandMenon1 @stefanauer_hku NI had rarely been discussed in the referendum, which had focused on the binary in or out. Thus, a lack of thinking on NI is the first focal point for how we got here. Traditional ways how borders work dictate one of three possibilities: Ireland, Sea, UK in EU regulatory space
@anandMenon1 @stefanauer_hku Now Parliament was fundamentally split. A majority for some sort of Brexit, no majority concrete enough to choose a way forward. You could place blame here, but in reality: Parliament was split because the population was. Democracy.
@anandMenon1 @stefanauer_hku May and the EU reached a deal. And here comes a curious bit - where in hindsight things could have been done better: May was terrible at selling the deal. And the EU failed to note sufficiently explicitly one thing:
@anandMenon1 @stefanauer_hku The EU had caved on a major red line it had. It had put a Customs Union into the backstop for the whole UK. It had resisted doing that. The fact that the EU had caved was not made clear sufficiently. Maybe that could have sold the deal...?
@anandMenon1 @stefanauer_hku But let’s also be honest here: negotiations don’t work by one side saying “and then I made a compromise I said I wouldn’t make, maybe I even violated Art. 50 here”. Saying that would have caused problems with Member States as well. So...
@anandMenon1 @stefanauer_hku So Parliament split - as could have been predicted given the positions. Neither did the majority willing to leave unite around the deals, nor did remainers pass the deal. Blame Parliament? I wouldn’t. Why? Because Parliament was split because the electorate wanted it so.
@anandMenon1 @stefanauer_hku This was what the population had decided in the last election. And it’s not a violation of the referendum either: it’s not like all leavers rallied around the position of May.
@anandMenon1 @stefanauer_hku So what is there to learn: I confess I don’t place a lot of blame here, but I think there’s more a historic lesson to draw: revolutions don’t happen by marginal baby steps. Human relations are prone to strong swings, rather than marginal changes. That’s (sadly) how we roll.
@anandMenon1 @stefanauer_hku I apologise to all of those who would have wanted me to find fault either with leave or remain, either with the UK or the EU and now regret reading a thread where I find fault with human beings.
