Thread by @RALee85

Thread: during a speech to foreign military attaches at NTsUO on the MoD's 2019 results, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov said in response to a question, "in our opinion, there are currently no indications that a large-scale war may start."
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

However, he noted that the situation in the world remains unstable, and developments have become more unpredictable “This is largely due to the desire of individual countries to force their principles on other sovereign states, including with the use of force." 2/

"Unprecedented political, economic and informational pressure is being exerted on countries that try to carry out independent policies, including Russia...we can't rule out that crises could emerge that may get out of control and develop into a large-scale military conflict.” 3/

"Trends in the changing forms of warfare allow us to conclude that future wars can be fought in all spheres...the decisions at the NATO summit in London serve as confirmation of this, since they recognized space as the fifth operational sphere." 4/
tass.com/defense/1100381

"Of course, we must be prepared for any possible scenario. Therefore, the defense potential of Russia at present and in the future will be maintained at a level that can repel aggression against our state of any scale, and from any sphere." 5/
ria.ru/20191218/15625…

Regarding a new military doctrine, "The current version of the document was approved by the President of the Russian Federation at the end of 2014. Of course, during this time events have occurred in the world that have led to the emergence of new military dangers and threats" 6/

He also said that each military doctrine is developed to cover 20 years, but it can be updated every 5 years. Based on his response about new dangers and threats, this seems to indicate a new doctrine could be approved or developed in the near future. 7/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

When asked about why the Ground Force's reverted to a division structure after earlier reforms, he said that the experience of modern armed conflicts has shown there isn't an indisputable/singular approach to choosing a division or brigade structure. 8/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

"It all depends on the features and conditions of their application (employment). In one case, divisions will be more effective, in the other - brigades. Therefore, it is necessary to have both brigades and divisions within the Armed Forces.” 9/

Gerasimov said the most important facet of the Russian Armed Forces' experience in Syria was for commanders and staffs for planning combat operations, organizing operations at combat CPs and ensuring their safety, and for managing fire fights in rapidly changing conditions. 10/

"Many commanders became direct participants in the events in Syria and gained practical experience in solving combat missions. In addition, in real combat conditions, a wide range of weapons and equipment, including the most modern, have been tested." 11/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

These systems include aircraft and aviation weapons, ISR, C2, EW, and UAVs that received their baptism of fire. He added that lessons learned from Syria have been included in training manuals, training plans, and in training exercises. 12/

That's all I could find from the Q&A. As for his prepared statement, Gerasimov said since the beginning of December, Peresvet laser systems have gone on combat duty with land-based mobile ICBM units to cover their maneuvers. 13/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

He noted that 3 RVSN regiments have been reequipped with Yars ICBMs, that the the 1st regiment armed with an Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle will go combat duty this month, the Knyaz Vladimir SSBN will be commissioned this month, and 4 other Borei-A are under construction. 14/

He reiterated Putin's statement that Russia is willing to extend New START, noted that 2 S-400 regiments have been delivered this year, mentioned the Container 29B6 over-the-horizon radar that went on duty this month, and the modernization of Tu-95MS and Tu-160 bombers. 15/

Gerasimov mentioned further testing, including in the Arctic, of the Kinzhal missile, and he noted that Russia is building a network of airfields across its territory from where Kinzhal-capable aircraft (MiG-31K and maybe Tu-22M3) can operate from. 16/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

A recent article reported that, according to Danish intelligence, Russia is extending its Nagurskoye Airfield on Franz Josef Land from 2,500 to 3,500 meters, and will likely be an operational base for fighters (possibly MiG-31 interceptors) next year. 17/
tv2.no/nyheter/110388…

Interestingly, Gerasimov said Su-57 fighters were sent back to Syria for a second time for further tests (which I don't think was ever reported). He said the VKS received 139 modern aircraft in 2019. 18/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

He said the experience of recent armed conflicts, and in particular Syria, has given new impetus to improving fires, in particular, special attention is being paid to the development of high-precision long-range air, sea, and land-based weapons. 19/

He said the Ground Forces and VDV received >3.3k new and upgraded weapons, including armored vehicles, high-precision missiles, AD missile systems, EW, and C2 equipment. He said the Navy would receive 25 ships and boats of various classes, including 5 equipped with Kalibrs. 20/

The total Russian Armed Forces' share of modern equipment is greater than 68% and is supposed to reach 70% by the end of 2020. Gerasimov said that combat training remains an MoD priority. 21/
redstar.ru/ministerstvo-o…

He blamed increased tensions in countries of the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia on the interference of Washington and its allies in their internal affairs, and he said a similar scenario was occurring in certain Latin American countries. 22/

"Military activities are increasing in the Baltic States and Poland, in the Black and Baltic Seas. The intensity of the bloc's military exercises is growing. The scenario [of the drills] signals that NATO is deliberately training its troops for a major military conflict." 23/

He noted that in doctrinal documents from Brussels, Russia is listed as an adversary, and he listed the NATO plans for future defense spending, as well as the perfunctory mention of US missile defense systems in Europe. 24/
tass.com/defense/1100381

"Reducing the risks of dangerous incidents in the military sphere should remain the most important part of the dialogue between Russia and the US/NATO. It is necessary to resume cooperation between Russia and NATO in order to resolve the accumulated problematic issues." 25/

"It is necessary to improve mechanisms of preventing dangerous military activities, including clarifying the protocol for exchanging signals and determining the minimally acceptable distance between military ships and aircraft." 26/

Notably, NATO Supreme Commander Gen. Tod Wolters said that Russia has not harassed U.S. ships and aircraft in Europe and the Mediterranean for the past three months in what appears to be an effort to avoid incidents that could escalate into conflict. 27/
military.com/daily-news/201…

WRT nuclear weapons in the Far East, "We have already deployed in the Far East a group of naval and aviation strategic nuclear forces that fully solve the tasks assigned to them. Their further development is envisaged through re-arming them with modern and advanced weapons.” 28/

"The development of the Navy is considered by us as one of the most important tasks. As I mentioned, the pace of construction of ships and submarines has increased. This is due to the need to ensure a naval presence in remote areas of the oceans." 29/
tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/co…

He said that Russia's shipbuilding priority is SSBNs with modern ballistic missiles, and that special attention is being paid to building multipurpose/functional submarines and surface ships equipped with Kalibr, Tsirkon, and other precision missiles. 30/

He said new ships would have increased combat capabilities, including the ability to operate in a single information space. Lastly, Gerasimov said Russia has no plans on increasing its military contingent in Syria. 31/

@KomissarWhipla with some good points about what Gerasimov didn't mention (he only mentioned the Tsirkon in response to a question). 32/

https://twitter.com/KomissarWhipla/status/1207176537331716100

@KomissarWhipla Some conclusions:
-Gerasimov is consistent about believing future warfare will be fought in all domains,
-He perceives nat sec threats as being multi-faceted (not just conventional military),
-A new military doctrine could come soon given "new threats" since the last one.
33/

@KomissarWhipla More conclusions:
-He believes the MoD should/can play a role in dealing with these multi-faceted threats, including non-mil threats (or wants Putin to know the MoD can),
-Mixed brigade/division structure is here to say for the foreseeable future,
-NATO is the main threat.
34/

@KomissarWhipla -The MoD's procurement priority is still strategic nuclear systems (SSBNs for shipbuilding),
-2nd procurement priority is precision missiles/carriers (air, land, and sea),
-Seems the purpose of the Peresvet laser systems is to counter detection of mobile ICBMs by foreign ISR.
35/

@KomissarWhipla Amusingly, the image used on the screen behind Gerasimov during his speech for the Russian PAK DA bomber appears to be an image of the US B-21 bomber. 36/

https://twitter.com/KomissarWhipla/status/1207200398047612928