Some speculative thoughts. Following the assassinations in Baghdad we can expect protests and violence against US assets and individuals in areas of Iranian influence. At some point, somewhere (not necessarily an obvious place) Iran will try to take its revenge.1/
There is no straightforward tit-for-tat response for Iran, for example taking out senior member of US Administration. They will still have to assume that their actions will lead to further US response. They may try revenge assassination but they have other options.2/
The underlying issue is the Iranian determination to reduce US influence in the region (and the US's to reduce Iran's). Over the past year they have been putting pressure on the Saudis and UAE, encouraging doubts about the value of the US as an ally. 3/
The most obvious and immediate focus however will be to try to make the US position in Iraq untenable (all US citizens have already been advised to leave). In this respect killing the Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis is also a big deal. 4/
Given that there are many in Iraq hostile to Iran the push to expel US forces from Iraq could further destabilise the country. Tensions are also bound to grow in Lebanon. 5/
A lot also will also depend on the impact of Soleimani's murder on the decision-making and power struggles in Teheran. A huge vacuum has been created in the local power structure and it is not clear how it will be filled. Who will now develop and implement Iran's responses? 6/
US-Iranian negotiations to find a way through the current impasse always seemed unlikely. Talk about diplomacy briefly surfaced last year. That will not be revived.7/
Trump likes to be seen to be 'winning', which is why he took badly to the attacks on the US embassy in Baghdad but his notion of victory is very short-term. The US has no obvious end game for the moment. end/
