In his major Iran policy speech, Pompeo stated bluntly, "As President Trump said two weeks ago, he is ready, willing, and able to negotiate a new deal. But the deal is not the objective. Our goal is to protect the American people." heritage.org/defense/event/…
Pompeo then listed 12 steps that the Iranian government must take -- a list that included both actions regarding Iran's nuclear program and support for terrorism in the region.
Moving forward, we should evaluate Trump actions against Iran against the list of THEIR stated objectives , as outlined in the Pompeo speech.
Regarding Trump administration aspirations concerning Iran's nuclear program, those goals seem impossible to achieve now. 'Maximum pressure' has not produced a better nuclear deal. Iran is now more likely to accelerate deployment of nuclear weapons rather than negotiate.
On this stated goal of the Trump administration -- a better nuclear deal -- Trump has made no progress so far, with near zero prospect of succeeding in the future. (Would Americans want to negotiate with Iran if they assassinated one of our military leaders? No way.)
Regarding Iranian support for terrorist organizations in the region, the long run is hard to predict. In the short term, we should expect an increase in activity, including against American targets (and not only in the region). How Trump will then respond? That's the unknown.
Most importantly, Pompeo stated in his speech, "Our goal is to protect the American people" -- a very laudable objective. If killing Soleimani increases the security of the American people, then Trump should be applauded. If the opposite, then this action should be condemned.
Experts rightly are trying to predict the answer to this question. But the truth is no one -- not defenders and not critics of Trump -- knows the answer. Dont believe anyone who is predicting the future with certainty right now.
Some on the Trump team (or formerly on the Trump team) advanced a more ambitious goal: regime change in Iran. I also want to see a democratic regime in Iran. Iranian human rights & democratic advocates hated Soleimani. But will his assassination trigger revolution? Unlikely.
So, regarding 3 Trump objectives for Iran (goals I share) -- (1) permanent denuclearization, (2) democratic regime change, and (3) the end of Iranian support for terrorism in the region, Soleimani's assassination does not get us closer to 1 or 2; & on 3, difficult to predict.
And, of course, Soleimani was one of the most evil terrorists of our era, responsible for the deaths of Americans and innocent civilians throughout the Middle East, including inside Iran. We need not debate this fact when assessing the strategic implications of his assassination
I hope I'm wrong. & I'll update my assessments with new data as events unfold. If the assassination of Soleimani produces a nuclear deal, less terrorism in the regime, and democracy in Iran, I'll be the first to applaud Trump.
What I will not do is hope for more carnage in order to prove Trump wrong. Given the balance of risks versus rewards, I would not have recommended the assassination of Soleimani. But what's done is done. I now support my government in trying to enhance the safety of all Americans
