THREAD. Regarding Iran, Trump & team pledged to enhance Americans' security by denying Iran a nuclear weapon, ending their support for terrorism, and reducing their influence in the Middle East. (Some on Trump's team also seek democratization in Iran, a goal I also support.) 1/
Secretary Pompeo outlined these goals here: heritage.org/defense/event/… 2/
Trump actions against Iran must be judged against these national security goals. Are his actions getting us closer to achieving these objectives goals or not? So far, the answer is no. 3/
In the last three years, we have not moved closer to the goals of denying Iran a nuclear weapon, ending Iranian-supported terrorism, or reducing Iranian influence in the Middle East. The Iranian regime also has not become more democratic. 4/
The killing of Suleimani will accelerate Iranian acquisition of a nuclear weapon and is unlikely to trigger a democratic revolution inside Iran (however hated he was by democratic forces in Iran). 5/
Of course, Suleimani was one of the most evil terrorists of our era, responsible for the murder of Americans and innocent civilians throughout the Middle East, including inside Iran. We need not debate this fact when assessing the strategic implications of his assassination. 6/
In the short run, Americans and our partners in Middle East are less secure than they were two days ago. (If Americans were more secure, the US government wouldn't be urging Americans to leave Iraq or sending more soldiers to the region.) 7/
In the long run, Trump's policy towards Iran might reduce terrorism and Iranian influence in the region. I'm skeptical, but too early to judge. The key variable is whether Trump has the fortitude to resist, deter & repel inevitable Iranian responses to Suleimani's death. 8/
And whether Trump has the diplomatic ability to maintain relations with our partners in the region, including first and foremost, Iraq. Analytically, I'm skeptical. Normatively, I want us to succeed. 9/
