1) @Puolustusvoimat released a trailer for an upcoming training video – Taistelukenttä 2020 – the other day. It depicts an escalating #turpo/#säkpol scenario. Some of my observations below (the videos are put together rather purposefully).
2) The video starts with a cyber or SOF operation to disturb electrical grid, and a “newsflash” on Finland being subjected to aggressive military and non-military operations --> std. thinking but good reminder that escalation doesn't 'build up to' mil force, it is integral to it.
3) at 0:15 “FDF begins mobilisation” – the political decision to do so would have many ramifications & could not be done in secret. However, prior to mob. FDF would have increased readiness and used instantly available forces...
4) ...such as the @Maavoimat VYKS units, local defence Bns, #FINSOF, @FinnishAirForce & @Navyfi units, to protect high-value targets, support mobilisation, and counter initial military incursions, possibly more (see below)
5) at 0:19 sea mining, initially likely areas to be protected but could in extremis be used to impede or close traffic anywhere in northern part of Baltic Sea. (in picture the newest variant developed in Finland for specific requirements and environs)
6) At about 0:21, preparing structures (bridges etc) for demolition – some structures are still constructed with purpose-built features to allow fast demolition by combat engineering units.
7) At 0:25, roadside AF operations, suggesting dispersal has already occurred – this has implications for many things, but the video implies the safest place for planes during expected pinpoint missile strike at a base is in the air (many ways to address ballistic missile threat)
8) At 0:28, Hornet with extra fuel tank and two JASSM, suggesting that adversary assets can be held at risk by long-range strikes (LRS).
9) At 0:31, an example of possible opponent tactic: flying in SOF in civilian plane claiming need for emergency landing…and, Finnish emergency services personnel being able to talk directly to relevant C2 in Finland.
10) at 0:39, #FINSOF, at 0:43 #comprehensivesecurity approach with @SuomenPoliisi & military coordinating, note both electronic and analog approaches.
At 0:52 FAF conducting its primary mission: air supremacy (or denying it to others), in this case in SW part of #Finland.
At 0:52 FAF conducting its primary mission: air supremacy (or denying it to others), in this case in SW part of #Finland.
11) At 1:02 Parliament and President have agreed that Finland is formally at war.
Of note is the second text, “Puolustustilalaki voimaan Etelä-Suomessa” (War powers in effect in southern Finland)...
Of note is the second text, “Puolustustilalaki voimaan Etelä-Suomessa” (War powers in effect in southern Finland)...
12) ...this law allows authorities CONSIDERABLY more ‘leeway’ in how to do things, and is far weightier than the emergency powers act. Also note legal ability to specify where law is applicable (southern Finland).
13) At 1:04 the rather odd (intelligence?) assessment, that the enemy is unlikely to surrender and will fight to the last man. Unless it's an implied part of the coastal ranger (#Kustjägare) assault concurrently on video this seems...unlikely.
14) At 1:09, some more #FINSOF, but the voiceover says “battlegroup 18…” serving as a good reminder that Finland has throughout its history used different/non-standard groupings of forces to achieve specific objectives; aligns with 'newish' land forces doctrine.
15) and last scene, the beginnings of an artillery barrage; in Ukraine (to take one example) artillery has been the major cause of casualties…here’s a show of how it might continue from #Pohjoinen17 exercise:
16) For those interested who 'the enemy' is, it's for obvious reasons not actually stated - ever - but this time it just happens that looking at their equipment, you might narrow the field, specifically the APC (0:58 and 1:14), tank (1:01), and helo (1:17).
Correction to No.5: It's actually the PM04, so older mine but also a 'bottom dweller' which is activated when sensors detect the specified acoustic, audio or water pressure signals.
H/T to person X who pointed it out, thanks.
H/T to person X who pointed it out, thanks.
