Thread by @HootHootBerns

We DO NOT need to pool with Warren to get over 50% in Milwaukee.

I repeat: WE DO NOT NEED WARREN TO WIN!

In fact, helping Warren get delegates is helping Biden or Pete win at this point, because she CLEARLY isn't going to pool with us!

Thread time:

https://twitter.com/FiringLineShow/status/1218202231520055300

Right now, there are only two strategies that make sense.

The first is ensuring absolute dominance. You see to it Bernie gets as many votes as possible to put him at the highest percentage possible, and shut everyone else out as best you can from reaching the 15% minimum.

Remember: You don't get 15%, you don't get delegates.

If Bernie has enough of a lead over Biden, Pete, or any other corporate hack who might pool with the establishment against him, they literally will not have enough delegates to play with to stop him.

As a result, he might get 30s or 40s on raw paper, but over half of the delegates. Result: Bernie clinches the nomination on the first ballot in Milwaukee.

This is the ideal scenario.

Obligatory note: this does not justify screaming at supporters of candidates who aren't at 15% to stop believing their candidate can win and fall in line.

Realignment in the Iowa caucus among people who may have otherwise stayed home sans their first choice helps boost our %!

Now, it's fair to question whether Bernie can pull this off alone. I've questioned it myself.

This is where delegate pooling can be a viable second angle, BUT!

You need SEVERAL conditions with a candidate and your own base for this to even *possibly* work!

They include:

1. The candidate you're pooling with can be relied upon to have your back in the first place (hint: NOT WARREN!)

2. The candidate draws more of their support from elsewhere than siphons from your base, making the combined total larger than a single candidate's.

3. Getting 15%!

You need all three to really make the concept work. You can boost someone who meets conditions 1 and 2 so that they reach condition 3, but trying to rescue and maintain condition 3 for Warren even though she's utterly failed condition 1 is a disastrous own goal waiting to happen.

If you still don't believe Warren netting delegates away from Bernie is dangerous as hell, give @NathanJRobinson 's piece a read: currentaffairs.org/2020/01/thinki…

I suspect the sudden "unity" pitches from certain quarters is also not a coincidence:

My speculation is, some in the Bernie camp placed one too many of their chips into pooling delegates with Warren, and were blindsided by recent events, sending them into panic + damage control.

Obviously, that speculation is in addition to the usual stuff--moles, Warren careerists trying to play Bernie people for their own gain, etc. etc.

I would strongly caution the Bernie camp: As scary as it seems, maximizing Bernie's percentage is FAR more lucrative than this.

And you most certainly CANNOT, and SHOULD NOT be so dependent upon prospective pooling that that it bars you from drawing effective, but respectful contrasts, as are completely reasonable and expected in a primary.

If you believe pooling IS necessary, Tulsi would be a far better candidate to work with if you can get her to 15%. After all, she's backed Bernie before, and spoke up in his defense even as Warren smeared him.

If you can't palate that reality, you shouldn't gamble with pooling.

My bias obviously shows on that one, but the overarching point is: rather than pin your hopes on pooling delegates with Warren, try to win more of her supporters to our side.

For many of them, Bernie is still their second choice. Make him their new first.✌️ /END