Thread by @ZackCooper

There’s some must read polling data for Asia watchers just out from @ISEAS (h/t @lindseywford). Here are 8 points that caught my eye… (1/9)

iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/The…

First, some good news: More Southeast Asian experts think the Indo-Pacific is a viable concept for regional order this year than last (28% in 2020 vs 17% in 2019). In this regard, the administration has made progress in the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia. (2/9)

But the number of Southeast Asian experts who say that the level of U.S. engagement has decreased significantly has doubled since last year. In fact, it has roughly tripled in Brunei, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Thailand. (3/9)

Furthermore, 79% of Southeast Asian experts say China is the region’s most influential economic power and 52% say China is the region’s most influential political and strategic influence. Only 7% and 26%, respectively, say the United States is the most influential. (4/9)

Nonetheless, Southeast Asian experts are wary of China’s growing influence. 71% are worried about China’s economic influence and 85% worried about its political and strategic influence. Conversely, 70% welcome U.S. economic influence and 52% U.S. strategic influence. (5/9)

There’s potential upside in these numbers for the United States. 60% of skeptics said their confidence in the United States would increase if there is a change of U.S. leadership. Those numbers are particularly high in Singapore, Brunei, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. (6/9)

And there’s also potential downside for China. Over 50% of those optimistic about China said their views could worsen due to China’s coercive tactics as well as its economic and political influence. Domestic repression in Hong Kong and Xinjiang were also real concerns. (7/9)

Yet, regional alignments remain split. 54% of experts favor the United States while 46% favor China. Only Vietnam, the Philippines, and Singapore choose the U.S. But Indonesia and Thailand are close calls. Together these five account for over 80% of ASEAN’s population. (8/9)

Bottom line: American strategists have to listen more to (and engage more with) regional players, especially in Southeast Asia. The region generally wants increased U.S. engagement. But right now, most of the trends are going against us. Time to get back to work. (9/9)