1/ For me, the great unknown variable in the UK-EU FTA negotiations is the value of continuity to the European Union.
We know it is above zero, because they agreed to set tariff free trade as a target for the negotiations, which they'd ordinarily never do in an FTA.
We know it is above zero, because they agreed to set tariff free trade as a target for the negotiations, which they'd ordinarily never do in an FTA.
2/ We also have to presume it has limits, and that there are things the EU would not be willing to accept to retain it.
We can infer this from common sense, economics, the EU's behavior during the Withdrawal Agreement negotiations, and the EU's recent statements.
We can infer this from common sense, economics, the EU's behavior during the Withdrawal Agreement negotiations, and the EU's recent statements.
3/ What we (or at least I) don't know is what the EU is hearing internally from their stakeholders and influencers.
Are businesses telling them to preserve tariff free trade at all costs?
Are national capitals engaged on this issue, relaxed about it?
Are businesses telling them to preserve tariff free trade at all costs?
Are national capitals engaged on this issue, relaxed about it?
4/ The UK-EU FTA is an exercise in partially reconstructing an existing relationship to prevent its complete deconstruction. That's new, when it comes to international trade policy.
Much will depend on the value, internally, that the EU places on salvaging individual components.
Much will depend on the value, internally, that the EU places on salvaging individual components.
