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The remaking of the political map in 2019 wasn't (only) about Brexit exhibit 1:

Data are E&W only. Seats categorised latest time Labour held them (so a loss in 2010 regained in 2017 and held on to in 2019 shows as a 2017 gain) Image
Losses (that were not regained and held in 2019) in 2010 and 2015 are as 'leavey' as those lost in 2019. Seats gained in 2015 (pre-referendum) and held on to in 2019 were the most pro-remain.
This is following the relationship between seats and education levels.

(I'd rather be talking about voters than places but waiting (im)patiently for data releases 🙂). Image
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Paula Surridge
@p_surridge
Something even more long-term to illustrate how the Labour vote has changed. Between 92 and 2010 the Labour voters were in roughly the same average position on social liberalism scale (scales run -2 - +2 low is lib and left) more or less in the centre of the scale (at 0) 1/3
They moved on average to a more liberal position in 2015 (as they gained liberal voters from LDs and lost socially Conservative voters to UKIP). This was further compounded in 2017. 2/3
Will need to wait a few months to be able to add the 2019 point - anyone fancy a game of pin the Labour vote on the chart? 3/3
Read 4 tweets
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Paula Surridge
@p_surridge
Wow, the latest @yougov poll has don't know running at more than 1 in 5 of pretty much every socio-demographic grouping and all previous votes. There is huge volatility in the system which may or may not be realised by the 'other' parties. Some other note worthy figures:
Among remainers 'Other party' (Not Lab/Cons/LD or SNP) is only at 6% but 2/3rds of these give Green as the other party. Among leavers 15% are saying 'other' party and Brexit party is polling higher than UKIP (perhaps confirming my hunch Farage brand > UKIP brand)
Not from this poll, but the number of signatures (or % of signatures) on the revoke article 50 petition correlates quite highly with 2015 Green Party vote (r=0.58) and not at all with 2017 Labour share.
Read 4 tweets
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Paula Surridge
@p_surridge
Unpacking age and education effects on values using the British Social Attitudes 2017 data.

Neither age nor education make much difference to how 'left-wing' someone is (on economics)
And there is also no evidence of the young being especially 'pro-welfare'. Those *with* degrees (or current students) are more pro-welfare than those without degrees (this effect seems a little weaker in younger age groups).
Younger age groups are a *little* more liberal than older age groups (most notable for the very youngest group) but the gap between degree/student and not degree is greater.
Read 4 tweets

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