TRUMP PEACE PLAN: Trump has just confirmed the outline of his Israeli-Palestinian peace plan. What does the plan say specifically and what does it mean? I’ve read the plan in detail and talked with all key players. Here’s the state of play: (1/9)
Proposal is classic Trump. Tearing up prior presidential playbook. Unabashed power politics. Recognizing new geopolitical reality of the Middle East. And domestic political upside, in midst of impeachment. (2/9)
Plan is most pro-Israel proposal ever issued from US. Palestinians get 70% of West Bank, while Israel can move immediately to annex settlements. Palestinians get capital in outskirts of Jerusalem, no right of return to Israel, no control of holy sites. (3/9)
But Trump pocketed 2 key Israeli concessions. First, Netanyahu and Gantz have endorsed eventual creation of a State of Palestine—unprecedented. And they’ve agreed to halt settlement expansion in territory that’s earmarked for Palestine. (4/9)
Trump’s Middle East pitch, in a sentence: Capital in Palestine is more important than the capital of Palestine. Upon acceptance, Palestinians can unlock $28b of investment to improve infrastructure, education, healthcare, workforce development. (5/9)
But there’s a poison pill: Hamas must either renounce violence, disarm, and accept Israel as a Jewish state…or be overthrown. That’s a non-starter. (6/9)
Palestinians will also object to the US acceptance of almost all Israeli settlements, the restrictions on the location of their new capital, and constraints on immigration to their new state. (7/9)
But US admin has been clear that there’s “meat left on the bone” – if Palestinians begin talking, they can improve their position. (8/9)
Plan is not just about Israel-Palestine. It’s about shifting geopolitics in the region. Palestinian leaders will face immense pressure from Arab world to play ball and cut their losses or be left empty-handed. (9/9)
Read more of my analysis in my @TIME Magazine exclusive: time.com/5773138/trump-…
