Thread by @ianbremmer

I’m far from a Trump supporter.

But impossible not to call Iran outcome a win for US president and a big opportunity going forward.

Trump’s two notable foreign policy wins: Massive escalation vs much weaker countries.

Threatening Mexico with economic catastrophe if they didn’t tighten their border. They did.

Military decapitation of Iran after strike against US base and embassy. Virtually no retaliation.

This will, of course, not work vs China. As they have the capacity and will to say no to the Americans.

Expect US-China relations to get significantly worse this year accordingly.

This doesn’t mean it’s the end of US-Iran conflict; there’s no “mission accomplished.”

But for everyone who thought killing Soleimani was going to lead to war, no...it established red-lines and deterrence.

If US now wants to engage in diplomacy, there’s a real window.