Thread by @TheValuesVoter

Remember how, after the emotion of the Kavanaugh hearings in the fall of 2018, conventional wisdom was that it fired up conservatives?

Well, the math doesn’t show that. Let me explain this and how it relates to the #ImpeachmentTrial and the coming election.

In 2018, in terms of raw votes, Democrats won:

17,537,638 more Senate votes.
9,710,275 more House votes.
2,800,876 more Governor votes.

We all know the House flipped.
The Democrats were defending 24 seats versus the GOP’s 9 and so the GOP picked up two Senate seats.

But all of the anger that many conservatives felt after the Kavanaugh confirmation hearing culminated in ... 30 million more votes for Democratic candidates for the Senate, House and Governorships than the number for Republican candidates.

That’s AFTER the GOP base was fired up?

Whatever the anger level was that was felt by conservatives who felt that Kavanaugh was dealt with unfairly is NOTHING compared to the anger that will be felt by not just Democrats but many Independents and some Republicans if Trump is given what is seen as a sham trial. Nothing.

Add to that bubbling cauldron the realities of the 2020 elections.

The GOP is defending 23 Senate seats versus the Democrats’ 12.

In the House, 25 Republicans are retiring.

Dems just held a Governor’s seat in Louisiana and flipped one in Kentucky. Despite Trump’s campaigning.

And on that note, it’s also worth noting the limitations of Trump’s coattails. The coattails Republicans are depending on.

In 2018, Trump made it his personal mission to get Jon Tester of Montana defeated. A state which Trump won by 20 points. Tester survived.

Trump could not save Dean Heller of Nevada despite his campaigning for him three times and publicly attacking his Democratic opponent. Heller still lost.

Trump campaigned for Rick Scott of Florida and helped Scott get elected. Still, Scott won by only 10,033 votes (0.10%).

Joe Manchin, the only Democratic member of Congress in West Virginia, a state where Trump is extremely popular, survived. Despite Trump campaigning with his Republican opponent.

And, of course, Trump’s recent campaigning for GOP gubernatorial candidates in LA and KY. Who lost.

So, putting it all together:

Trump voters who were angry about their perceptions of Kavanaugh’s treatment went to the polls along with voters who didn’t like Trump in 2018. And were outnumbered.

If the #ImpeachmentTrial ends without witnesses being called, the Trump voters will likely be relieved and sated. And everybody else furious and motivated.

There are numerous Senate Republicans who are quite vulnerable. And the impeachment trial will give their opponents fresh material. Accusations that they helped foster a cover-up will linger over their heads for the next nine months. Even IF we learn nothing else in the interim.

The 25 House retirements make it extremely unlikely that the GOP will make up ground in the House.

It’s going to be interesting to watch.

One more quick note. Trump as not able to help Republicans win the governorship in Louisiana or keep it in Kentucky.

And then, in Mississippi, the other of the 2019 Gubernatorial contests, the GOP candidate won by only 5 points. In MISSISSIPPI. AFTER Trump campaigned there.

By my calculation, Trump has campaigned in person for 16 GOP Senate candidates in the 2018 election cycle.

The result? 50-50.

8 candidates Trump personally campaigned for won (and now owe their careers to him and will do anything for him in the #ImpeachmentTrial).

And 8 lost.

The candidates who Trump helped win and their margins of victory):
- Blackburn (TN, 10.80%)
- Cramer (ND, 10.84%)
- Braun (IN, 5.89%)
- Hawley (MO, 5.81%)
- Hyde-Smith (MS, 7.26%)
- Wicker (MS, 19.02%)
- Cruz (TX, 2.56%)
- Scott (FL, 0.13%)

All in 2016 red states.

The candidates Trump could not help win and their margins of defeat:

- Heller (NV, 5.03%)
- Rosedale (MT, 3.55%)*
- Barletta (PA, 14.12%)*
- Morrisey (WV, 3.31%)*
- Housley (MN, 10.62%)
- Renacci (OH, 6.82%)*
- McSally (AZ, 2.35%)*
- Vukmir (WI, 10.90%)*

* 2016 red state

What does this mean?

It means that, looking at the 2018 midterms, there is evidence that Trump can help you win a Senate contest in states where he won by a sizeable margin. Usually.

On the other hand, in states Trump didn’t carry by a massive margin in 2016, Senate candidates who Trump worked to help get elected did not fare very well.

Senate candidates who Trump showed up to rally for 6 out of the 8 races in states which Trump carried by 10 points or more.

And Senate candidates who Trump showed up to campaign with won only 2 of the 8 contests in states in which Trump had a margin of less than 10 points. Despite the fact that Trump won 6 of those states.

So back to 2020. There are a bunch of GOP Senate candidates running in states in which Trump is not that popular. And they’re counting on Trump’s continued support to carry them through.

There is little historical reason for them to think that will help them much.