Time for a very broad brush little thread; trying to explain why Brexit happened, and why it won't end well. 1/9
For the last 20 or so years, the world has moved from crisis to crisis. Unemployment, financial crash, austerity, migration, climate etc. Inequality has risen. 2/9
This is fertile ground for populists, for us v them rhetoric, for radical solutions. There are strong calls (on both right and left) to break the system. To dispense with the new. To return to a better (perhaps imaginary) past. 3/9
We can see it the world over, and we can certainly see it in the move towards Brexit. Blame the other (the EU, immigration, etc) for our problems. Restore our sovereignty. Have faith that we will reclaim past glories. 4/9
But... there are (at least) two key problems with the populist narrative. 5/9
First, it may be that the cause of the crises lies not in others, but in ourselves. Certainly the mere fact of leaving the EU will not magically produce solutions for the UK. 6/9
And second, the world has changed. The world is not the same as it was in the aftermath of WW2. The UK - acting alone - will not be the force it was then. 7/9
The US and China dominate. The EU has some influence. The UK without the EU, not so much. Its position in the more brutal world of 2020 will be much diminished. Its capacity to achieve its broader goals much reduced. 8/9
I hope I'm wrong, and that the UK finds a way to creating a better relationship with the EU and the wider world... but I'm not optimistic. Nothing I've seen from this Govt suggests that it is equal to the task ahead. 9/9
