BREAKING: Updated Iowa Results (71% Reporting) Now In*
*Below is the first-round raw vote—the equivalent of a primary popular vote—and the second-round raw vote, which is the final caucus popular vote. I don't mess with delegates—as those will shift a *ton* in the next 3 months.
*Below is the first-round raw vote—the equivalent of a primary popular vote—and the second-round raw vote, which is the final caucus popular vote. I don't mess with delegates—as those will shift a *ton* in the next 3 months.
SOURCE/ NYT: nytimes.com/interactive/20…
IOWA DATA WITH 71% REPORTING:
Data equivalent for a primary popular vote:
2⃣4⃣ Sanders
2⃣1⃣ Buttigieg
1⃣9⃣ Warren
1⃣5⃣ Biden
1⃣3⃣ Klobuchar
Data equivalent for a "final" caucus popular vote (post-viability):
2⃣6⃣ Sanders
2⃣5⃣ Buttigieg
2⃣1⃣ Warren
1⃣3⃣ Biden
1⃣2⃣ Klobuchar
Data equivalent for a primary popular vote:
2⃣4⃣ Sanders
2⃣1⃣ Buttigieg
1⃣9⃣ Warren
1⃣5⃣ Biden
1⃣3⃣ Klobuchar
Data equivalent for a "final" caucus popular vote (post-viability):
2⃣6⃣ Sanders
2⃣5⃣ Buttigieg
2⃣1⃣ Warren
1⃣3⃣ Biden
1⃣2⃣ Klobuchar
UPSHOT: In both cases you have 3 candidates within 5% of one another and drawing—combined—about two-thirds of the total vote. In the first case Biden's only 4% behind the 3 top-tier candidates within 5% of one another, and in the second case he's a whole 8%. Feels like two tiers.
UPSHOT2: But to be fair, yes, within the top tier it feels like a clear 1-2-3 (Sanders-Buttigieg-Warren). And of course everything could change in New Hampshire. But. It's going to be hard to dislodge Sanders and Warren from that 1-2-3 in the Granite State. Buttigieg? Don't know.
