Thread on deducing the death rate of 2019-nCoV: OK, I think I get it now, sorry that I have been so dense. China is relating the number of confirmed cases instead of the best estimates, which relates more to the testing capacity in the crisis region than to the incidence.
We can estimate (by looking at infection rates of evacuees and the degree of crisis of medical and social resources) that the cases in Wuhan alone are in the hundred thousands. The number of reported deaths is far off from plausible estimates as well.
The WHO reports the death rate as the ratio of diagnosed dead to total confirmed diagnoses ON THE SAME DAY. But if the number of cases is growing by a factor of 1.3 per day and it takes 9 days to die after confirming the diagnosis, the death rate should be 20% instead of 2%!
Journalists reporting on these numbers without noticing that can be explained as basic arithmetic illiteracy (NYT) and domesticated monkey behavior (Buzzfeed), but how can the WHO blunder like that?
Which brings me to the next inconsistency: the ratio of dead to confirmed diagnosed has been uncannily steadily at 2.1+/–.1% for many days in a row now. If you really go and fully fake the number of deaths, why make it so obvious?!
It is clear that China, the WHO and the CDC must have statistically sound estimates of the number of estimated cases and the mortality rate (which you can probably determine by tracking a cohort of early infected cases). Why don’t they say so? They may all have good reasons.
China (as perhaps our own governments as well) does not consider it prudent to report the full extent of China‘s present and our future humanitarian crisis. But at least they are letting us know the mortality estimate. It’s the pattern encoded into two meaningless numbers: 2.1%.
If the disease is mainly killing people with diminished lung capacity, bear in mind that China has more smokers and severe air pollution, so the rate may be much lower in the US.
All of the above are speculative thoughts. Don’t believe anything I say.
All of the above are speculative thoughts. Don’t believe anything I say.
