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Did the Tax Cut and Jobs Act get rid of incentives for profit shifting, offshoring of production and tax avoidance in the pharmaceutical sector?

1/x
cfr.org/blog/tax-games…
The tax games of big pharma and big tech differ. Big tech exports intangibles at low prices to offshore centers for "reexport" -- shifting the profit to a tax haven. Big pharma moves profits out of the US by importing drugs (from their subsidiaries) at a high price

2/x
After jumping in the past two years, imports of pharma are as large as aircraft exports (and aircraft are America's best export sector). The trade deficit in pharma matches the trade surplus in aircraft. And it is almost all with a few low tax jurisdictions ...

3/x
It is time for the U.S. to reconsider a corporate tax policy that is putting Ireland first ...

4/4

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Brad Setser
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Interesting article from the WSJ.

Two points.

1/ Europe's rising trade surplus with the United States is an important counterpoint to claims that the trade war drove Europe's 2019 slowdown.

wsj.com/articles/trump…

1/x
and 2/ the Trump administration is barking up the wrong tree when it blames European trade policy for Europe's rising trade surplus with the U.S.

The surplus is clearly the result of different macroeconomic policy stances.

2/x
cfr.org/blog/why-globa…
The imbalance reflects in large part Europe's decision to right a tighter fiscal policy after the global financial crisis than it did before (even with lower rates), and the United States' decision to do the opposite.

3/3
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Brad Setser
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And on the positive side, the euro area will enter 2020 with lots of so far unused fiscal ammunition, as Germany once again delivered a smaller than expected stimulus and will end the year with a larger than expected surplus.
Seriously, if not now, then when? EA growth has clearly slowed.

And a detailed disaggregation that adjusts for Irish distortions would show that the slowdown is primarily because the pace of domestic demand inside Europe has slowed.

ft.com/content/198f07…
Even with a weak domestic economy, Germany's central government posted a record budget surplus -- and the general government surplus is expected to top 1.5 pp of German GDP

thelocal.de/20200115/curta…
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Brad Setser
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The White House, per Greg Ip, says that the US "accounts for 70% of patented pharmaceutical profits."

I would be rather surprised, though, is the IRS got taxes on 70% of patented pharmaceutical profits as U.S. source income ...

cfr.org/blog/tax-games…
Here is Greg Ip's article on the new CEA study as well

wsj.com/articles/drug-…
Higher European and Canadian drug prices would almost certainly result in higher offshore profits for "US" pharma companies that produce their patent protected products abroad, not higher US exports.
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