If Dem race comes down to frontrunning Bernie vs Bloomberg $ (two non-Dems) would suggest much of what I & other scholars thought was unique to last Rep nomination is part of a broader shift: the parties have fully lost control to $, media, & the polarizers (at least for prez)
It perhaps should also localize our theories about Trump’s rise (& related reform ideas). A lot that seemed inevitable afterward or fundamentally revealing about Republicans might have instead been attributable mostly to the hackability of the broken prez nominating process
It’s not just that the party didn’t decide. Big fields with lack of coordination, early states followed by SuperTues limiting paths, elites hesitant, unpredictable media narratives & events all make ultimate nominee more likely due to idiosyncratic factors & timing over consensus
Talk after 2016 focused on whether Dems would also go for outsider celebrity or whether Dem electorate was less predisposed. But may have missed the point: prez nominations are now open to factional & media/$ driven candidates & they may not need to reflect changing voter desires
With Trump, so tempting to spin broad narratives of cultural change & inevitability. If Bloomberg wins, I hope we don’t say was due to some big Dem desire. Story of left turn will at least make sense for Bernie, but will be odd to tell if he wins with ~same vote share in a crowd
